Treasure Beach vs Tivoli Gardens Prediction
Model lean is not a Primary bet — one answer only below.
No Primary Bet
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Model snapshot generated
Risk factors
- ✗Market moved against Treasure Beach2.75 → 3.1 · ↑ +12.7%
Market Intelligence
Market drift · Treasure Beach · ↑ +12.7%
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
⚠ Market moved away from Treasure Beach while the model still favours another side.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Match Phase: Cancelled
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Closing unavailable
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Prediction Generated
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Market ComparedEntry 3.1
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Validation Passed
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Closing RecordedClosing Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
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CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending Requires closing line after full time
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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