Predictions / Football / Australia. Tasmania Southern Championship / South Hobart II vs Hobart City

Prediction Audit: South Hobart II vs Hobart City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

South Hobart II South Hobart II
Aug 09, 2026 - 04:00
3 1.33
3 1.27
xG Accuracy: 39%
Hobart City Hobart City

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected South Hobart II at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 South Hobart II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices South Hobart II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: South Hobart II -28.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
South Hobart II 36.6% 64.7% -28.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 18.1% +11.5 pp Model Edge
Hobart City 33.8% 17.2% +16.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates South Hobart II's win probability at 64.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 28.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned South Hobart II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on South Hobart II by 28.1 percentage points (64.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · South Hobart II 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Hobart City 33.8%
    • xG · South Hobart II 1.33 — Hobart City 1.27
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · South Hobart II 1.40 · Draw 5.00 · Hobart City 5.25
    • Implied 1X2 · South Hobart II 64.7% · Draw 18.1% · Hobart City 17.2%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · South Hobart II 1.40 · Draw 5.00 · Hobart City 5.25
    • Implied 1X2 · South Hobart II 64.7% · Draw 18.1% · Hobart City 17.2%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2959344

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · South Hobart II 3–3 Hobart City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tasmania Southern Championship
  • Fixture: South Hobart II vs Hobart City
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 04:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): South Hobart II 1.33 — Hobart City 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Tasmania Southern Championship Tasmania Southern Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 South Hobart II 17 13 2 2 41
2 Olympia Warriors 17 10 3 4 33
3 New Town 16 9 5 2 32
4 Taroona 17 9 3 5 30
5 Hobart City 16 7 6 3 27
6 Clarence Zebras II 16 7 1 8 22
7 Glenorchy Knights FC 2 9 2 2 5 8
7 Hobart Utd. 17 4 3 10 15
8 Glenorchy Knights II 17 3 2 12 11
9 University of Tasmania 17 3 1 13 10
10 South East Utd. 6 0 0 6 0
10 South East Utd. 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 South Hobart II 17 77 21 +56 41
2 Taroona 17 58 25 +33 30
3 New Town 16 54 17 +37 32
4 Olympia Warriors 17 47 28 +19 33
5 Hobart City 16 41 28 +13 27
6 Clarence Zebras II 16 37 41 -4 22
7 Glenorchy Knights II 17 37 79 -42 11
8 Hobart Utd. 17 36 77 -41 15
9 Glenorchy Knights FC 2 9 30 29 +1 8
10 University of Tasmania 17 30 57 -27 10
11 South East Utd. 6 6 50 -44 0
12 South East Utd. 0 0 0 0 0