Predictions / Football / Australia. Tasmania Southern Championship / New Town vs Olympia Warriors

Prediction Audit: New Town vs Olympia Warriors Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

New Town New Town
Jul 04, 2026 - 04:30
0 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 49%
Olympia Warriors Olympia Warriors

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected New Town at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 New Town Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned New Town; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 04, 2026 · 19:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · New Town 1.41 — Olympia Warriors 1.19
  2. Jul 04, 2026 · 04:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1787218

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · New Town 0–0 Olympia Warriors
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tasmania Southern Championship
  • Fixture: New Town vs Olympia Warriors
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 04:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): New Town 1.41 — Olympia Warriors 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Tasmania Southern Championship Tasmania Southern Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 South Hobart II 17 13 2 2 41
2 Olympia Warriors 17 10 3 4 33
3 New Town 16 9 5 2 32
4 Taroona 17 9 3 5 30
5 Hobart City 16 7 6 3 27
6 Clarence Zebras II 16 7 1 8 22
7 Glenorchy Knights FC 2 9 2 2 5 8
7 Hobart Utd. 17 4 3 10 15
8 Glenorchy Knights II 17 3 2 12 11
9 University of Tasmania 17 3 1 13 10
10 South East Utd. 6 0 0 6 0
10 South East Utd. 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 South Hobart II 17 77 21 +56 41
2 Taroona 17 58 25 +33 30
3 New Town 16 54 17 +37 32
4 Olympia Warriors 17 47 28 +19 33
5 Hobart City 16 41 28 +13 27
6 Clarence Zebras II 16 37 41 -4 22
7 Glenorchy Knights II 17 37 79 -42 11
8 Hobart Utd. 17 36 77 -41 15
9 Glenorchy Knights FC 2 9 30 29 +1 8
10 University of Tasmania 17 30 57 -27 10
11 South East Utd. 6 6 50 -44 0
12 South East Utd. 0 0 0 0 0