Prediction Audit: Shangyu Pterosaur vs Guangzhou Dandelion Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shangyu Pterosaur

Aug 16, 2026 - 11:30

1 1.22

3 1.38

xG Accuracy: 60%

Guangzhou Dandelion

AI correctly predicted the Guangzhou Dandelion win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Guangzhou Dandelion Guangzhou Dandelion ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Shangyu Pterosaur	31.5%	37.0%	-5.5 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.5%	31.5%	-1.9 pp	Aligned
Guangzhou Dandelion	39.0%	31.5%	+7.5 pp	Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Guangzhou Dandelion's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.5%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Guangzhou Dandelion win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Guangzhou Dandelion.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Guangzhou Dandelion more conservatively (31.5% vs model 39.0%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Guangzhou Dandelion win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 16, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shangyu Pterosaur 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Guangzhou Dandelion 39.0%
- xG · Shangyu Pterosaur 1.22 — Guangzhou Dandelion 1.38
Aug 16, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shangyu Pterosaur 2.39 · Draw 2.81 · Guangzhou Dandelion 2.81
- Implied 1X2 · Shangyu Pterosaur 37.0% · Draw 31.5% · Guangzhou Dandelion 31.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Shangyu Pterosaur 2.39 · Draw 2.81 · Guangzhou Dandelion 2.81
- Implied 1X2 · Shangyu Pterosaur 37.0% · Draw 31.5% · Guangzhou Dandelion 31.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Guangzhou Dandelion win · 1–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3598993

Closing Odds 2.81

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Guangzhou Dandelion win · Shangyu Pterosaur 1–3 Guangzhou Dandelion

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: League Two
Fixture: Shangyu Pterosaur vs Guangzhou Dandelion
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Shangyu Pterosaur 1.22 — Guangzhou Dandelion 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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