Predictions / Football / China. League Two / Shandong Taishan II vs Dalian Yingbo B

Prediction Audit: Shandong Taishan II vs Dalian Yingbo B Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shandong Taishan II Shandong Taishan II
Aug 15, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.45
1 1.15
xG Accuracy: 64%
⚽
Dalian Yingbo B

The model missed the final outcome (Dalian Yingbo B win 0–1).

The model had projected Shandong Taishan II at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Shandong Taishan II Dalian Yingbo B ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Shandong Taishan II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Shandong Taishan II -10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Shandong Taishan II 42.4% 53.2% -10.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 28.5% +0.7 pp Aligned
Dalian Yingbo B 28.4% 18.2% +10.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Shandong Taishan II's win probability at 53.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dalian Yingbo B win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Shandong Taishan II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Shandong Taishan II; match finished Dalian Yingbo B

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Shandong Taishan II by 10.8 percentage points (53.2% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shandong Taishan II 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Dalian Yingbo B 28.4%
    • xG · Shandong Taishan II 1.45 — Dalian Yingbo B 1.15
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shandong Taishan II 1.70 · Draw 3.17 · Dalian Yingbo B 4.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Shandong Taishan II 53.2% · Draw 28.5% · Dalian Yingbo B 18.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shandong Taishan II 1.70 · Draw 3.17 · Dalian Yingbo B 4.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Shandong Taishan II 53.2% · Draw 28.5% · Dalian Yingbo B 18.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dalian Yingbo B win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3336644

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dalian Yingbo B win · Shandong Taishan II 0–1 Dalian Yingbo B
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: League Two
  • Fixture: Shandong Taishan II vs Dalian Yingbo B
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Shandong Taishan II 1.45 — Dalian Yingbo B 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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