Predictions / Football / China. League Two / Dalian Kewei vs Rizhao Yuqi

Prediction Audit: Dalian Kewei vs Rizhao Yuqi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

⚽
Dalian Kewei
Aug 09, 2026 - 09:30
2 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 68%
Rizhao Yuqi Rizhao Yuqi

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Rizhao Yuqi at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rizhao Yuqi Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dalian Kewei higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dalian Kewei -28.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dalian Kewei 34.7% 63.0% -28.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.3% +3.3 pp Aligned
Rizhao Yuqi 35.6% 10.7% +25.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Dalian Kewei's win probability at 63.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 28.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Rizhao Yuqi; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rizhao Yuqi by 28.3 percentage points (63.9% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dalian Kewei 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Rizhao Yuqi 35.6%
    • xG · Dalian Kewei 1.29 — Rizhao Yuqi 1.31
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dalian Kewei 1.44 · Draw 3.45 · Rizhao Yuqi 8.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalian Kewei 63.0% · Draw 26.3% · Rizhao Yuqi 10.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dalian Kewei 1.44 · Draw 3.45 · Rizhao Yuqi 8.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalian Kewei 63.0% · Draw 26.3% · Rizhao Yuqi 10.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2960404

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Dalian Kewei 2–2 Rizhao Yuqi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: League Two
  • Fixture: Dalian Kewei vs Rizhao Yuqi
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Dalian Kewei 1.29 — Rizhao Yuqi 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Rizhao Yuqi
  • Model: 35.6% · Implied: 10.7% · Probability edge: +24.9 pts · Est. EV: +17.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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