The model missed the final outcome (Guangdong Mingtu win 2–0).
The model had projected Chengdu Rongcheng II at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Chengdu Rongcheng II Guangdong Mingtu ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guangdong Mingtu | 28.4% | 39.0% | -10.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 32.9% | -3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Chengdu Rongcheng II | 42.4% | 28.1% | +14.3 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Chengdu Rongcheng II's win probability at 42.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.1%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Guangdong Mingtu win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Chengdu Rongcheng II.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Chengdu Rongcheng II; match finished Guangdong Mingtu
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Chengdu Rongcheng II by 14.3 percentage points (28.1% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Guangdong Mingtu 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Chengdu Rongcheng II 42.4%
- xG · Guangdong Mingtu 1.15 — Chengdu Rongcheng II 1.45
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Guangdong Mingtu 2.32 · Draw 2.75 · Chengdu Rongcheng II 3.22
- Implied 1X2 · Guangdong Mingtu 39.0% · Draw 32.9% · Chengdu Rongcheng II 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Guangdong Mingtu 2.32 · Draw 2.75 · Chengdu Rongcheng II 3.22
- Implied 1X2 · Guangdong Mingtu 39.0% · Draw 32.9% · Chengdu Rongcheng II 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 27, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Guangdong Mingtu win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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