The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Jiangxi Liansheng at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Jiangxi Liansheng Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangxi Liansheng | 39.9% | 51.4% | -11.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.5% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Guangdong Mingtu | 30.6% | 20.1% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Jiangxi Liansheng's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Jiangxi Liansheng than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Jiangxi Liansheng; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Jiangxi Liansheng by 11.4 percentage points (51.3% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 19:25 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Jiangxi Liansheng 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Guangdong Mingtu 30.6%
- xG · Jiangxi Liansheng 1.40 — Guangdong Mingtu 1.20
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Jiangxi Liansheng 1.76 · Draw 3.17 · Guangdong Mingtu 4.49
- Implied 1X2 · Jiangxi Liansheng 51.4% · Draw 28.5% · Guangdong Mingtu 20.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Jiangxi Liansheng 1.76 · Draw 3.17 · Guangdong Mingtu 4.49
- Implied 1X2 · Jiangxi Liansheng 51.4% · Draw 28.5% · Guangdong Mingtu 20.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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