The model missed the final outcome (Xi'an Ronghai win 1–2).
The model had projected Dalian Yingbo B at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Dalian Yingbo B Xi'an Ronghai ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian Yingbo B | 38.0% | 31.6% | +6.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 30.5% | 33.5% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Xi'an Ronghai | 31.5% | 34.8% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Dalian Yingbo B's win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.6%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Xi'an Ronghai win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Dalian Yingbo B.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Dalian Yingbo B; match finished Xi'an Ronghai
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dalian Yingbo B by 6.4 percentage points (31.6% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 19:23 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dalian Yingbo B 38.0% · Draw 30.5% · Xi'an Ronghai 31.5%
- xG · Dalian Yingbo B 1.41 — Xi'an Ronghai 1.19
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dalian Yingbo B 2.86 · Draw 2.70 · Xi'an Ronghai 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Dalian Yingbo B 31.6% · Draw 33.5% · Xi'an Ronghai 34.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dalian Yingbo B 2.86 · Draw 2.70 · Xi'an Ronghai 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Dalian Yingbo B 31.6% · Draw 33.5% · Xi'an Ronghai 34.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Xi'an Ronghai win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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