Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga I / CFR 1907 Cluj vs Arges Pitesti

Prediction Audit: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Arges Pitesti Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CFR 1907 Cluj CFR 1907 Cluj
May 22, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.13
1 0.89
xG Accuracy: 94%
Arges Pitesti Arges Pitesti

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected CFR 1907 Cluj at 39.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CFR 1907 Cluj Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices CFR 1907 Cluj higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: CFR 1907 Cluj -13.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
CFR 1907 Cluj 39.3% 52.4% -13.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 33.8% 26.7% +7.1 pp Model Higher
Arges Pitesti 26.8% 20.8% +6.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates CFR 1907 Cluj's win probability at 52.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.3%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about CFR 1907 Cluj than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.02, 2 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned CFR 1907 Cluj; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on CFR 1907 Cluj by 13.1 percentage points (52.4% vs model 39.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 20:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · CFR 1907 Cluj 39.4% · Draw 33.8% · Arges Pitesti 26.8%
    • xG · CFR 1907 Cluj 1.13 — Arges Pitesti 0.89
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · CFR 1907 Cluj 1.79 · Draw 3.51 · Arges Pitesti 4.51
    • Implied 1X2 · CFR 1907 Cluj 52.4% · Draw 26.7% · Arges Pitesti 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · CFR 1907 Cluj 1.79 · Draw 3.51 · Arges Pitesti 4.51
    • Implied 1X2 · CFR 1907 Cluj 52.4% · Draw 26.7% · Arges Pitesti 20.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1471587

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · CFR 1907 Cluj 1–1 Arges Pitesti
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Arges Pitesti
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.4% · Draw 33.8% · Away 26.8%
  • xG (showing): CFR 1907 Cluj 1.13 — Arges Pitesti 0.89 (total xG ≈ 2.02)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.1% · Implied: 56.2% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +14.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.6% · No 58.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 50
2 Universitatea Cluj 10 6 1 3 46
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 4 4 2 43
4 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 3 4 3 39
5 Rapid 10 1 3 6 34
6 Arges Pitesti 10 1 4 5 32
7 FCSB 30 13 7 10 46
8 Uta Arad 30 11 10 9 43
9 FC Botosani 30 11 9 10 42
10 Oţelul 30 11 8 11 41
11 Farul Constanta 30 10 7 13 37
12 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 7 11 12 32
13 Csikszereda 30 8 8 14 32
14 Unirea Slobozia 30 7 4 19 25
15 AFC Hermannstadt 30 5 8 17 23
16 Metaloglobus 30 2 6 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FCSB 30 48 40 +8 46
2 Oţelul 30 39 32 +7 41
3 Farul Constanta 30 39 37 +2 37
4 Uta Arad 30 39 44 -5 43
5 FC Botosani 30 37 29 +8 42
6 Csikszereda 30 30 58 -28 32
7 AFC Hermannstadt 30 29 50 -21 23
8 Unirea Slobozia 30 27 46 -19 25
9 Metaloglobus 30 25 66 -41 12
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 24 31 -7 32
11 Universitatea Cluj 10 13 11 +2 46
12 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 13 12 +1 39
13 Universitatea Craiova 10 12 6 +6 50
14 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 8 7 +1 43
15 Rapid 10 8 14 -6 34
16 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 32
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FCSB 30 50.6 28.2 +22.4 46
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 43.7 24.3 +19.4 39
3 Universitatea Craiova 10 37.5 24.4 +13.1 50
4 Oţelul 30 41.3 33.1 +8.2 41
5 Farul Constanta 30 37.8 33.2 +4.6 37
6 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 34.8 32.4 +2.4 43
7 Rapid 10 35.3 33.2 +2.1 34
8 FC Botosani 30 33.9 32.2 +1.7 42
9 Universitatea Cluj 10 32.0 30.8 +1.2 46
10 Arges Pitesti 10 26.0 25.8 +0.2 32
11 AFC Hermannstadt 30 29.8 31.9 -2.1 23
12 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 28.9 34.5 -5.6 32
13 Uta Arad 30 33.5 42.0 -8.5 43
14 Unirea Slobozia 30 26.9 39.8 -12.9 25
15 Metaloglobus 30 23.1 42.4 -19.3 12
16 Csikszereda 30 22.9 49.8 -26.9 32
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions