Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga I / Rapid vs CFR 1907 Cluj

Prediction Audit: Rapid vs CFR 1907 Cluj Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rapid Rapid
May 04, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.70
2 0.86
xG Accuracy: 60%
CFR 1907 Cluj CFR 1907 Cluj

The model missed the final outcome (CFR 1907 Cluj win 1–2).

The model had projected Rapid at 55.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rapid CFR 1907 Cluj ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Rapid considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Rapid +17.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rapid 55.8% 38.4% +17.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 26.8% 30.1% -3.2 pp Aligned
CFR 1907 Cluj 17.4% 31.5% -14.2 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Rapid's win probability at 55.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 38.4%, a difference of 17.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CFR 1907 Cluj win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Rapid.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.56) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rapid by 17.4 percentage points (38.4% vs model 55.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rapid 55.9% · Draw 26.8% · CFR 1907 Cluj 17.4%
    • xG · Rapid 1.70 — CFR 1907 Cluj 0.86
  2. May 04, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rapid 2.48 · Draw 3.17 · CFR 1907 Cluj 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Rapid 38.4% · Draw 30.1% · CFR 1907 Cluj 31.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 04, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rapid 2.48 · Draw 3.17 · CFR 1907 Cluj 3.02
    • Implied 1X2 · Rapid 38.4% · Draw 30.1% · CFR 1907 Cluj 31.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 04, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CFR 1907 Cluj win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1474854

Closing Odds 2.48
AI Fair Odds 1.79
CLV Pending
Final Result CFR 1907 Cluj win · Rapid 1–2 CFR 1907 Cluj
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 55.9%
  • Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: Rapid vs CFR 1907 Cluj
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-04 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 55.9% · Draw 26.8% · Away 17.3%
  • xG (showing): Rapid 1.7 — CFR 1907 Cluj 0.86 (total xG ≈ 2.56)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Rapid
  • Model: 55.9% · Implied: 38.4% · Probability edge: +17.4 pts · Est. EV: +9.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.6% · No 51.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 50
2 Universitatea Cluj 10 6 1 3 46
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 4 4 2 43
4 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 3 4 3 39
5 Rapid 10 1 3 6 34
6 Arges Pitesti 10 1 4 5 32
7 FCSB 30 13 7 10 46
8 Uta Arad 30 11 10 9 43
9 FC Botosani 30 11 9 10 42
10 Oţelul 30 11 8 11 41
11 Farul Constanta 30 10 7 13 37
12 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 7 11 12 32
13 Csikszereda 30 8 8 14 32
14 Unirea Slobozia 30 7 4 19 25
15 AFC Hermannstadt 30 5 8 17 23
16 Metaloglobus 30 2 6 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FCSB 30 48 40 +8 46
2 Oţelul 30 39 32 +7 41
3 Farul Constanta 30 39 37 +2 37
4 Uta Arad 30 39 44 -5 43
5 FC Botosani 30 37 29 +8 42
6 Csikszereda 30 30 58 -28 32
7 AFC Hermannstadt 30 29 50 -21 23
8 Unirea Slobozia 30 27 46 -19 25
9 Metaloglobus 30 25 66 -41 12
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 24 31 -7 32
11 Universitatea Cluj 10 13 11 +2 46
12 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 13 12 +1 39
13 Universitatea Craiova 10 12 6 +6 50
14 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 8 7 +1 43
15 Rapid 10 8 14 -6 34
16 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 32
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FCSB 30 50.6 28.2 +22.4 46
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 43.7 24.3 +19.4 39
3 Universitatea Craiova 10 37.5 24.4 +13.1 50
4 Oţelul 30 41.3 33.1 +8.2 41
5 Farul Constanta 30 37.8 33.2 +4.6 37
6 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 34.8 32.4 +2.4 43
7 Rapid 10 35.3 33.2 +2.1 34
8 FC Botosani 30 33.9 32.2 +1.7 42
9 Universitatea Cluj 10 32.0 30.8 +1.2 46
10 Arges Pitesti 10 26.0 25.8 +0.2 32
11 AFC Hermannstadt 30 29.8 31.9 -2.1 23
12 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 28.9 34.5 -5.6 32
13 Uta Arad 30 33.5 42.0 -8.5 43
14 Unirea Slobozia 30 26.9 39.8 -12.9 25
15 Metaloglobus 30 23.1 42.4 -19.3 12
16 Csikszereda 30 22.9 49.8 -26.9 32
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions