Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga I / AFC Hermannstadt vs FCSB

Prediction Audit: AFC Hermannstadt vs FCSB Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

AFC Hermannstadt AFC Hermannstadt
May 18, 2026 - 17:30
2 0.97
0 1.91
xG Accuracy: 45%
FCSB FCSB

The model missed the final outcome (AFC Hermannstadt win 2–0).

The model had projected FCSB at 58.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FCSB AFC Hermannstadt ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates FCSB considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: FCSB +17.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
AFC Hermannstadt 17.4% 34.2% -16.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.6% 24.9% -0.2 pp Aligned
FCSB 58.0% 41.0% +17.0 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates FCSB's win probability at 58.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 41.0%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was AFC Hermannstadt win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on FCSB.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FCSB by 17.0 percentage points (41.0% vs model 58.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · AFC Hermannstadt 17.3% · Draw 24.6% · FCSB 58.1%
    • xG · AFC Hermannstadt 0.97 — FCSB 1.91
  2. May 16, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · AFC Hermannstadt 2.65 · Draw 3.64 · FCSB 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · AFC Hermannstadt 34.2% · Draw 24.9% · FCSB 41.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · AFC Hermannstadt 2.65 · Draw 3.64 · FCSB 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · AFC Hermannstadt 34.2% · Draw 24.9% · FCSB 41.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result AFC Hermannstadt win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 00:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1776316

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AFC Hermannstadt win · AFC Hermannstadt 2–0 FCSB
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: AFC Hermannstadt vs FCSB
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 17.3% · Draw 24.6% · Away 58.1%
  • xG (showing): AFC Hermannstadt 0.97 — FCSB 1.91 (total xG ≈ 2.88)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 54.9% · Implied: 49.9% · Probability edge: +5.0 pts · Est. EV: +10.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (10.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 50
2 Universitatea Cluj 10 6 1 3 46
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 4 4 2 43
4 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 3 4 3 39
5 Rapid 10 1 3 6 34
6 Arges Pitesti 10 1 4 5 32
7 FCSB 30 13 7 10 46
8 Uta Arad 30 11 10 9 43
9 FC Botosani 30 11 9 10 42
10 Oţelul 30 11 8 11 41
11 Farul Constanta 30 10 7 13 37
12 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 7 11 12 32
13 Csikszereda 30 8 8 14 32
14 Unirea Slobozia 30 7 4 19 25
15 AFC Hermannstadt 30 5 8 17 23
16 Metaloglobus 30 2 6 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FCSB 30 48 40 +8 46
2 Oţelul 30 39 32 +7 41
3 Farul Constanta 30 39 37 +2 37
4 Uta Arad 30 39 44 -5 43
5 FC Botosani 30 37 29 +8 42
6 Csikszereda 30 30 58 -28 32
7 AFC Hermannstadt 30 29 50 -21 23
8 Unirea Slobozia 30 27 46 -19 25
9 Metaloglobus 30 25 66 -41 12
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 24 31 -7 32
11 Universitatea Cluj 10 13 11 +2 46
12 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 13 12 +1 39
13 Universitatea Craiova 10 12 6 +6 50
14 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 8 7 +1 43
15 Rapid 10 8 14 -6 34
16 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 32
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FCSB 30 50.6 28.2 +22.4 46
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 43.7 24.3 +19.4 39
3 Universitatea Craiova 10 37.5 24.4 +13.1 50
4 Oţelul 30 41.3 33.1 +8.2 41
5 Farul Constanta 30 37.8 33.2 +4.6 37
6 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 34.8 32.4 +2.4 43
7 Rapid 10 35.3 33.2 +2.1 34
8 FC Botosani 30 33.9 32.2 +1.7 42
9 Universitatea Cluj 10 32.0 30.8 +1.2 46
10 Arges Pitesti 10 26.0 25.8 +0.2 32
11 AFC Hermannstadt 30 29.8 31.9 -2.1 23
12 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 28.9 34.5 -5.6 32
13 Uta Arad 30 33.5 42.0 -8.5 43
14 Unirea Slobozia 30 26.9 39.8 -12.9 25
15 Metaloglobus 30 23.1 42.4 -19.3 12
16 Csikszereda 30 22.9 49.8 -26.9 32
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions