Predictions / Football / Romania. Liga I / FCSB vs Unirea Slobozia

Prediction Audit: FCSB vs Unirea Slobozia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FCSB FCSB
May 11, 2026 - 18:00
0 2.81
0 1.02
xG Accuracy: 35%
Unirea Slobozia Unirea Slobozia

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected FCSB at 73.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FCSB Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 3-0, 1-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: FCSB -2.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FCSB 73.7% 76.0% -2.3 pp Aligned
Draw 16.2% 15.3% +0.9 pp Aligned
Unirea Slobozia 10.2% 8.7% +1.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FCSB 73.6% · Draw 16.2% · Unirea Slobozia 10.2%
    • xG · FCSB 2.81 — Unirea Slobozia 1.02
  2. May 09, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FCSB 1.22 · Draw 6.06 · Unirea Slobozia 10.61
    • Implied 1X2 · FCSB 76.0% · Draw 15.3% · Unirea Slobozia 8.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FCSB 1.22 · Draw 6.06 · Unirea Slobozia 10.61
    • Implied 1X2 · FCSB 76.0% · Draw 15.3% · Unirea Slobozia 8.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 11, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 66/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (108%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 88/100
Betting Confidence 69/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 07:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3162278

Closing Odds 1.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · FCSB 0–0 Unirea Slobozia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga I
  • Fixture: FCSB vs Unirea Slobozia
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 73.6% · Draw 16.2% · Away 10.2%
  • xG (showing): FCSB 2.81 — Unirea Slobozia 1.02 (total xG ≈ 3.83)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 60.9% · Implied: 46.0% · Probability edge: +14.9 pts · Est. EV: +27.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.9% · No 39.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga I Liga I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Universitatea Craiova 10 6 2 2 50
2 Universitatea Cluj 10 6 1 3 46
3 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 4 4 2 43
4 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 3 4 3 39
5 Rapid 10 1 3 6 34
6 Arges Pitesti 10 1 4 5 32
7 FCSB 30 13 7 10 46
8 Uta Arad 30 11 10 9 43
9 FC Botosani 30 11 9 10 42
10 Oţelul 30 11 8 11 41
11 Farul Constanta 30 10 7 13 37
12 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 7 11 12 32
13 Csikszereda 30 8 8 14 32
14 Unirea Slobozia 30 7 4 19 25
15 AFC Hermannstadt 30 5 8 17 23
16 Metaloglobus 30 2 6 22 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FCSB 30 48 40 +8 46
2 Oţelul 30 39 32 +7 41
3 Farul Constanta 30 39 37 +2 37
4 Uta Arad 30 39 44 -5 43
5 FC Botosani 30 37 29 +8 42
6 Csikszereda 30 30 58 -28 32
7 AFC Hermannstadt 30 29 50 -21 23
8 Unirea Slobozia 30 27 46 -19 25
9 Metaloglobus 30 25 66 -41 12
10 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 24 31 -7 32
11 Universitatea Cluj 10 13 11 +2 46
12 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 13 12 +1 39
13 Universitatea Craiova 10 12 6 +6 50
14 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 8 7 +1 43
15 Rapid 10 8 14 -6 34
16 Arges Pitesti 10 6 10 -4 32
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FCSB 30 50.6 28.2 +22.4 46
2 Dinamo Bucuresti 10 43.7 24.3 +19.4 39
3 Universitatea Craiova 10 37.5 24.4 +13.1 50
4 Oţelul 30 41.3 33.1 +8.2 41
5 Farul Constanta 30 37.8 33.2 +4.6 37
6 CFR 1907 Cluj 10 34.8 32.4 +2.4 43
7 Rapid 10 35.3 33.2 +2.1 34
8 FC Botosani 30 33.9 32.2 +1.7 42
9 Universitatea Cluj 10 32.0 30.8 +1.2 46
10 Arges Pitesti 10 26.0 25.8 +0.2 32
11 AFC Hermannstadt 30 29.8 31.9 -2.1 23
12 Petrolul Ploiesti 30 28.9 34.5 -5.6 32
13 Uta Arad 30 33.5 42.0 -8.5 43
14 Unirea Slobozia 30 26.9 39.8 -12.9 25
15 Metaloglobus 30 23.1 42.4 -19.3 12
16 Csikszereda 30 22.9 49.8 -26.9 32
Liga I Romania. Liga I Predictions