The model missed the final outcome (BST Galaxy win 0–1).
The model had projected Draw at 35.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 draw BST Galaxy ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Tomorrow | 29.7% | 35.5% | -5.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 35.5% | 34.0% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
| BST Galaxy | 34.8% | 30.6% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Greater Tomorrow's win probability at 35.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was BST Galaxy win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Greater Tomorrow. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.81, 1 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished BST Galaxy
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 5.7 percentage points (41.2% vs model 35.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 16, 2026 · 18:23 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Greater Tomorrow 29.7% · Draw 35.4% · BST Galaxy 34.8%
- xG · Greater Tomorrow 0.82 — BST Galaxy 0.99
-
Jun 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Greater Tomorrow 2.51 · Draw 2.62 · BST Galaxy 2.91
- Implied 1X2 · Greater Tomorrow 35.5% · Draw 34.0% · BST Galaxy 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 16, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Greater Tomorrow 2.51 · Draw 2.62 · BST Galaxy 2.91
- Implied 1X2 · Greater Tomorrow 35.5% · Draw 34.0% · BST Galaxy 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 16, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result BST Galaxy win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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GFA League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medina United | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 48 |
| 2 | Fortune | 28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Bombada | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | GPA | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | Brikama United | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | Real de Banjul | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 41 |
| 7 | Team Rhino | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37 |
| 8 | Hart Acedemy | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 35 |
| 9 | Dutch Lions | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 33 |
| 10 | BST Galaxy | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 33 |
| 11 | Hawks | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Falcons | 28 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 31 |
| 13 | Greater Tomorrow | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 31 |
| 14 | Steve Biko | 28 | 5 | 14 | 9 | 29 |
| 15 | TMT | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 29 |
| 16 | Samger | 28 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 28 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bombada | 28 | 34 | 26 | +8 | 44 |
| 2 | Brikama United | 28 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 42 |
| 3 | Hart Acedemy | 28 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 35 |
| 4 | Fortune | 28 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 47 |
| 5 | Medina United | 28 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 48 |
| 6 | Dutch Lions | 28 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 33 |
| 7 | Real de Banjul | 28 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 41 |
| 8 | Team Rhino | 28 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 37 |
| 9 | BST Galaxy | 28 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Steve Biko | 28 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 29 |
| 11 | Hawks | 28 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 31 |
| 12 | GPA | 28 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 44 |
| 13 | Greater Tomorrow | 28 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 31 |
| 14 | Samger | 28 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 28 |
| 15 | TMT | 28 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 29 |
| 16 | Falcons | 28 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 31 |
