The model missed the final outcome (Fortune win 1–2).
The model had projected Draw at 37.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Draw Fortune ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Fortune win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 11, 2026 · 22:56 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Falcons 0.76 — Fortune 0.89
-
Jun 11, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fortune win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Fortune win · Falcons 1–2 Fortune
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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GFA League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medina United | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 48 |
| 2 | Fortune | 28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Bombada | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | GPA | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | Brikama United | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | Real de Banjul | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 41 |
| 7 | Team Rhino | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37 |
| 8 | Hart Acedemy | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 35 |
| 9 | Dutch Lions | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 33 |
| 10 | BST Galaxy | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 33 |
| 11 | Hawks | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Falcons | 28 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 31 |
| 13 | Greater Tomorrow | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 31 |
| 14 | Steve Biko | 28 | 5 | 14 | 9 | 29 |
| 15 | TMT | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 29 |
| 16 | Samger | 28 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 28 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bombada | 28 | 34 | 26 | +8 | 44 |
| 2 | Brikama United | 28 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 42 |
| 3 | Hart Acedemy | 28 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 35 |
| 4 | Fortune | 28 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 47 |
| 5 | Medina United | 28 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 48 |
| 6 | Dutch Lions | 28 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 33 |
| 7 | Real de Banjul | 28 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 41 |
| 8 | Team Rhino | 28 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 37 |
| 9 | BST Galaxy | 28 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Steve Biko | 28 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 29 |
| 11 | Hawks | 28 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 31 |
| 12 | GPA | 28 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 44 |
| 13 | Greater Tomorrow | 28 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 31 |
| 14 | Samger | 28 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 28 |
| 15 | TMT | 28 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 29 |
| 16 | Falcons | 28 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 31 |
