AI correctly predicted the Aral win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Aral Aral ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aral | 45.3% | 58.7% | -13.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.7% | 22.4% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Shortan | 27.0% | 18.9% | +8.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Aral's win probability at 58.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Aral win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Aral than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Aral higher (58.7% vs model 45.3%, 13.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Aral win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Aral 45.3% · Draw 27.7% · Shortan 27.0%
- xG · Aral 1.39 — Shortan 1.21
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Aral 1.53 · Draw 4.00 · Shortan 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Aral 58.7% · Draw 22.4% · Shortan 18.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Aral 1.53 · Draw 4.00 · Shortan 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Aral 58.7% · Draw 22.4% · Shortan 18.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Jul 24, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aral win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Pro League A — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 20 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 49 |
| 2 | Shortan | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 42 |
| 3 | Metalourg | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 |
| 4 | FarDu | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 39 |
| 5 | Kattaqurgon | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 6 | Gazalkent | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 |
| 7 | Lochin | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 |
| 8 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Jayxun | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 10 | Respublika FA | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 11 | Yaypan | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 20 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor II | 20 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metalourg | 20 | 46 | 16 | +30 | 40 |
| 2 | Aral | 20 | 42 | 13 | +29 | 49 |
| 3 | FarDu | 20 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 39 |
| 4 | Gazalkent | 20 | 36 | 23 | +13 | 32 |
| 5 | Shortan | 20 | 35 | 19 | +16 | 42 |
| 6 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 18 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 31 |
| 7 | Lochin | 20 | 26 | 23 | +3 | 32 |
| 8 | Respublika FA | 19 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 22 |
| 9 | Kattaqurgon | 19 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 33 |
| 10 | Yaypan | 20 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 22 |
| 11 | Jayxun | 20 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 20 | 16 | 48 | -32 | 10 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor II | 20 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 10 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 20 | 12 | 48 | -36 | 4 |
