Predictions / Football / World. Leagues Cup / Philadelphia Union vs Santos Laguna

Prediction Audit: Philadelphia Union vs Santos Laguna Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
Aug 13, 2026 - 23:00
0 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 55%
Santos Laguna Santos Laguna

The model missed the final outcome (Santos Laguna win 0–2).

The model had projected Philadelphia Union at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Philadelphia Union Santos Laguna ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Philadelphia Union higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Philadelphia Union -25.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Philadelphia Union 39.5% 65.3% -25.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 19.2% +10.3 pp Model Edge
Santos Laguna 31.0% 15.5% +15.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Philadelphia Union's win probability at 65.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Santos Laguna win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Philadelphia Union; match finished Santos Laguna

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Philadelphia Union by 25.9 percentage points (65.3% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 13, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Philadelphia Union 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Santos Laguna 31.0%
    • xG · Philadelphia Union 1.39 — Santos Laguna 1.21
  2. Aug 13, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Philadelphia Union 1.45 · Draw 4.93 · Santos Laguna 6.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Philadelphia Union 65.3% · Draw 19.2% · Santos Laguna 15.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 13, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Philadelphia Union 1.45 · Draw 4.93 · Santos Laguna 6.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Philadelphia Union 65.3% · Draw 19.2% · Santos Laguna 15.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 13, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Santos Laguna win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3153956

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Santos Laguna win · Philadelphia Union 0–2 Santos Laguna
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Leagues Cup
  • Fixture: Philadelphia Union vs Santos Laguna
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-13 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Philadelphia Union 1.39 — Santos Laguna 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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