Predictions / Football / World. Leagues Cup / Charlotte vs Pachuca

Prediction Audit: Charlotte vs Pachuca Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Charlotte Charlotte
Aug 11, 2026 - 23:30
0 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
Pachuca Pachuca

The model missed the final outcome (Pachuca win 0–1).

The model had projected Charlotte at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Charlotte Pachuca ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Charlotte higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Charlotte -21.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Charlotte 37.1% 58.2% -21.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.6% +8.1 pp Model Higher
Pachuca 33.3% 20.3% +13.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Charlotte's win probability at 58.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 21.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Pachuca win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Charlotte; match finished Pachuca

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Charlotte by 21.1 percentage points (58.2% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 11, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Charlotte 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Pachuca 33.4%
    • xG · Charlotte 1.34 — Pachuca 1.26
  2. Aug 11, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Charlotte 1.63 · Draw 4.40 · Pachuca 4.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Charlotte 58.2% · Draw 21.6% · Pachuca 20.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 11, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Charlotte 1.63 · Draw 4.40 · Pachuca 4.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Charlotte 58.2% · Draw 21.6% · Pachuca 20.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 11, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pachuca win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3021407

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pachuca win · Charlotte 0–1 Pachuca
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Leagues Cup
  • Fixture: Charlotte vs Pachuca
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-11 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Charlotte 1.34 — Pachuca 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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