Predictions / Football / Russia. Supreme Division Women / Lokomotiv Moskva W vs Chertanovo

Prediction Audit: Lokomotiv Moskva W vs Chertanovo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lokomotiv Moskva W Lokomotiv Moskva W
Aug 29, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 81%
Chertanovo Chertanovo

AI correctly predicted the Lokomotiv Moskva W win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lokomotiv Moskva W Lokomotiv Moskva W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Lokomotiv Moskva W win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Lokomotiv Moskva W 1.42 — Chertanovo 1.18
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Lokomotiv Moskva W win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5122712

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lokomotiv Moskva W win · Lokomotiv Moskva W 2–1 Chertanovo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Supreme Division Women
  • Fixture: Lokomotiv Moskva W vs Chertanovo
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Lokomotiv Moskva W 1.42 — Chertanovo 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Supreme Division Women Supreme Division Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zenit W 18 16 2 0 50
2 CSKA Moskva W 19 16 1 2 49
3 Spartak Moskva 18 13 4 1 43
4 Lokomotiv Moskva W 18 11 4 3 37
5 Krylya Sovetov W 18 9 4 5 31
6 Dinamo Moskva 18 9 1 8 28
7 Rubin Kazan 19 5 8 6 23
8 Chertanovo 19 6 3 10 21
9 Zvezda Perm W 19 4 4 11 16
10 Krasnodar W 18 2 7 9 13
11 Rostov 19 3 3 13 12
12 Ryazan W 19 1 6 12 9
13 Yenisey W 18 0 3 15 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zenit W 18 51 5 +46 50
2 CSKA Moskva W 19 51 9 +42 49
3 Spartak Moskva 18 44 11 +33 43
4 Lokomotiv Moskva W 18 33 9 +24 37
5 Krylya Sovetov W 18 25 20 +5 31
6 Rubin Kazan 19 22 25 -3 23
7 Chertanovo 19 22 34 -12 21
8 Dinamo Moskva 18 19 17 +2 28
9 Krasnodar W 18 15 29 -14 13
10 Zvezda Perm W 19 12 33 -21 16
11 Ryazan W 19 10 39 -29 9
12 Yenisey W 18 7 42 -35 3
13 Rostov 19 6 44 -38 12
Supreme Division Women Russia. Supreme Division Women Predictions