Predictions / Football / Lithuania. 1 Lyga / Kauno Žalgiris II vs Dainava

Prediction Audit: Kauno Žalgiris II vs Dainava Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kauno Žalgiris II Kauno Žalgiris II
Jun 12, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 59%
Dainava Dainava

AI correctly predicted the Dainava win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dainava Dainava ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Dainava win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 12, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Kauno Žalgiris II 1.27 — Dainava 1.33
  2. Jun 12, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Dainava win · 0–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 02:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3021931

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dainava win · Kauno Žalgiris II 0–2 Dainava
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1 Lyga
  • Fixture: Kauno Žalgiris II vs Dainava
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-12 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Kauno Žalgiris II 1.27 — Dainava 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1 Lyga 1 Lyga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Minija 25 22 1 2 67
2 Babrungas 26 20 4 2 64
3 Be1 NFA 25 16 3 6 51
4 Žalgiris II 26 14 4 8 46
5 Neptūną Klaipėda 26 14 2 10 44
6 Tauras 25 13 4 8 43
7 BFA 26 13 4 9 43
8 Dainava 26 11 8 7 41
9 Atmosfera 25 8 7 10 31
10 Jonava 26 7 6 13 27
11 Garliava 26 7 5 14 26
12 Hegelmann II 26 8 1 17 25
13 Kauno Žalgiris II 26 7 2 17 23
14 Transinvest 2 26 6 4 16 22
15 FA Šiauliai II 26 4 6 16 18
16 Ekranas 26 4 3 19 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Minija 25 68 13 +55 67
2 Babrungas 26 45 11 +34 64
3 Be1 NFA 25 45 27 +18 51
4 Tauras 25 43 31 +12 43
5 Žalgiris II 26 40 33 +7 46
6 BFA 26 40 37 +3 43
7 Dainava 26 37 27 +10 41
8 Atmosfera 25 37 33 +4 31
9 Neptūną Klaipėda 26 33 31 +2 44
10 Hegelmann II 26 31 56 -25 25
11 Transinvest 2 26 30 59 -29 22
12 FA Šiauliai II 26 30 59 -29 18
13 Garliava 26 29 31 -2 26
14 Jonava 26 28 35 -7 27
15 Kauno Žalgiris II 26 26 46 -20 23
16 Ekranas 26 26 59 -33 15
1 Lyga Lithuania. 1 Lyga Predictions