Predictions / Football / Latvia. 1. Liga / Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK

Prediction Audit: Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tukums II Tukums II
Sep 06, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.28
3 1.32
xG Accuracy: 44%
Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK

AI correctly predicted the Leevon / PPK win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Leevon / PPK higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Leevon / PPK -28.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tukums II 34.2% 16.8% +17.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 19.2% +10.5 pp Model Edge
Leevon / PPK 36.1% 64.1% -28.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Leevon / PPK's win probability at 64.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 28.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Leevon / PPK win 0–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Leevon / PPK higher (64.1% vs model 36.1%, 28.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Leevon / PPK win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tukums II 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Leevon / PPK 36.1%
    • xG · Tukums II 1.28 — Leevon / PPK 1.32
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tukums II 5.35 · Draw 4.68 · Leevon / PPK 1.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Tukums II 16.8% · Draw 19.2% · Leevon / PPK 64.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tukums II 5.35 · Draw 4.68 · Leevon / PPK 1.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Tukums II 16.8% · Draw 19.2% · Leevon / PPK 64.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Leevon / PPK win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6322823

Closing Odds 1.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Leevon / PPK win · Tukums II 0–3 Leevon / PPK
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Liga
  • Fixture: Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Tukums II 1.28 — Leevon / PPK 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Liga 1. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 17 3 1 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 16 3 2 51
3 Leevon / PPK 21 15 4 2 49
4 Riga Mariners 21 14 5 2 47
5 JDFS Alberts 21 11 4 6 37
6 Mārupe 21 9 2 10 29
7 Skanste 21 8 2 11 26
8 Riga FC II 21 7 5 9 26
9 Super Nova 2 21 6 7 8 25
10 Tukums II 21 5 3 13 18
11 Smiltene 21 4 4 13 16
12 JFK Ventspils 21 3 6 12 15
13 Rīgas FS II 21 4 3 14 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 89 17 +72 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 60 23 +37 51
3 Riga Mariners 21 50 23 +27 47
4 Leevon / PPK 21 43 25 +18 49
5 Skanste 21 43 42 +1 26
6 JDFS Alberts 21 42 31 +11 37
7 Mārupe 21 34 32 +2 29
8 Rīgas FS II 21 34 62 -28 15
9 Riga FC II 21 29 37 -8 26
10 Smiltene 21 29 57 -28 16
11 Super Nova 2 21 28 32 -4 25
12 Tukums II 21 27 60 -33 18
13 JFK Ventspils 21 21 41 -20 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 17 64 -47 6