Predictions / Football / Latvia. 1. Liga / Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils

Prediction Audit: Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rīgas FS II Rīgas FS II
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 46%
JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils

AI correctly predicted the Rīgas FS II win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rīgas FS II Rīgas FS II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices JFK Ventspils higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: JFK Ventspils -12.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rīgas FS II 39.9% 33.4% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.5% 23.7% +5.8 pp Model Higher
JFK Ventspils 30.6% 42.9% -12.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates JFK Ventspils's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rīgas FS II win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about JFK Ventspils than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rīgas FS II higher (52.2% vs model 39.9%, 12.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rīgas FS II win 4–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rīgas FS II 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · JFK Ventspils 30.6%
    • xG · Rīgas FS II 1.40 — JFK Ventspils 1.20
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rīgas FS II 2.70 · Draw 3.80 · JFK Ventspils 2.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Rīgas FS II 33.4% · Draw 23.7% · JFK Ventspils 42.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Rīgas FS II 2.70 · Draw 3.80 · JFK Ventspils 2.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Rīgas FS II 33.4% · Draw 23.7% · JFK Ventspils 42.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rīgas FS II win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6143704

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rīgas FS II win · Rīgas FS II 4–1 JFK Ventspils
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga
  • Fixture: Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Rīgas FS II 1.4 — JFK Ventspils 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga 1. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 17 3 1 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 16 3 2 51
3 Leevon / PPK 21 15 4 2 49
4 Riga Mariners 21 14 5 2 47
5 JDFS Alberts 21 11 4 6 37
6 Mārupe 21 9 2 10 29
7 Skanste 21 8 2 11 26
8 Riga FC II 21 7 5 9 26
9 Super Nova 2 21 6 7 8 25
10 Tukums II 21 5 3 13 18
11 Smiltene 21 4 4 13 16
12 JFK Ventspils 21 3 6 12 15
13 Rīgas FS II 21 4 3 14 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 89 17 +72 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 60 23 +37 51
3 Riga Mariners 21 50 23 +27 47
4 Leevon / PPK 21 43 25 +18 49
5 Skanste 21 43 42 +1 26
6 JDFS Alberts 21 42 31 +11 37
7 Mārupe 21 34 32 +2 29
8 Rīgas FS II 21 34 62 -28 15
9 Riga FC II 21 29 37 -8 26
10 Smiltene 21 29 57 -28 16
11 Super Nova 2 21 28 32 -4 25
12 Tukums II 21 27 60 -33 18
13 JFK Ventspils 21 21 41 -20 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 17 64 -47 6