Predictions / Football / Latvia. 1. Liga / Leevon / PPK vs Super Nova 2

Prediction Audit: Leevon / PPK vs Super Nova 2 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK
Aug 29, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 76%
⚽
Super Nova 2

The model missed the final outcome (Leevon / PPK win 2–1).

The model had projected Super Nova 2 at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Super Nova 2 Leevon / PPK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Leevon / PPK higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Leevon / PPK -26.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Leevon / PPK 34.7% 61.2% -26.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.3% +8.4 pp Model Higher
Super Nova 2 35.6% 17.5% +18.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Leevon / PPK's win probability at 61.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 26.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Leevon / PPK win 2–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Super Nova 2; match finished Leevon / PPK

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Super Nova 2 by 26.5 percentage points (62.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Leevon / PPK 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Super Nova 2 35.6%
    • xG · Leevon / PPK 1.29 — Super Nova 2 1.31
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Leevon / PPK 1.45 · Draw 4.33 · Super Nova 2 5.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Leevon / PPK 61.5% · Draw 20.6% · Super Nova 2 17.9%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Leevon / PPK 1.47 · Draw 4.23 · Super Nova 2 5.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Leevon / PPK 61.2% · Draw 21.3% · Super Nova 2 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Leevon / PPK win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5122626

Closing Odds 1.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Leevon / PPK win · Leevon / PPK 2–1 Super Nova 2
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. Liga
  • Fixture: Leevon / PPK vs Super Nova 2
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Leevon / PPK 1.29 — Super Nova 2 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming 1. Liga Matches Track Leevon / PPK Next Match Prediction Track Super Nova 2 Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Back to Predictions
1. Liga 1. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 17 3 1 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 16 3 2 51
3 Leevon / PPK 21 15 4 2 49
4 Riga Mariners 21 14 5 2 47
5 JDFS Alberts 21 11 4 6 37
6 Mārupe 21 9 2 10 29
7 Skanste 21 8 2 11 26
8 Riga FC II 21 7 5 9 26
9 Super Nova 2 21 6 7 8 25
10 Tukums II 21 5 3 13 18
11 Smiltene 21 4 4 13 16
12 JFK Ventspils 21 3 6 12 15
13 Rīgas FS II 21 4 3 14 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 89 17 +72 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 60 23 +37 51
3 Riga Mariners 21 50 23 +27 47
4 Leevon / PPK 21 43 25 +18 49
5 Skanste 21 43 42 +1 26
6 JDFS Alberts 21 42 31 +11 37
7 Mārupe 21 34 32 +2 29
8 Rīgas FS II 21 34 62 -28 15
9 Riga FC II 21 29 37 -8 26
10 Smiltene 21 29 57 -28 16
11 Super Nova 2 21 28 32 -4 25
12 Tukums II 21 27 60 -33 18
13 JFK Ventspils 21 21 41 -20 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 17 64 -47 6