Predictions / Football / Latvia. 1. Liga / Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts

Prediction Audit: Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tukums II Tukums II
Aug 03, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.15
1 1.45
xG Accuracy: 85%
JDFS Alberts JDFS Alberts

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected JDFS Alberts at 42.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 JDFS Alberts Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices JDFS Alberts higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: JDFS Alberts -26.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tukums II 28.4% 13.9% +14.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.3% 17.1% +12.1 pp Model Edge
JDFS Alberts 42.4% 69.0% -26.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates JDFS Alberts's win probability at 69.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 26.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned JDFS Alberts; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on JDFS Alberts by 26.6 percentage points (69.0% vs model 42.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tukums II 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · JDFS Alberts 42.4%
    • xG · Tukums II 1.15 — JDFS Alberts 1.45
  2. Aug 03, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tukums II 6.37 · Draw 5.16 · JDFS Alberts 1.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Tukums II 13.9% · Draw 17.1% · JDFS Alberts 69.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tukums II 6.37 · Draw 5.16 · JDFS Alberts 1.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Tukums II 13.9% · Draw 17.1% · JDFS Alberts 69.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 03, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 03:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2131552

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tukums II 1–1 JDFS Alberts
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Liga
  • Fixture: Tukums II vs JDFS Alberts
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-03 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
  • xG (showing): Tukums II 1.15 — JDFS Alberts 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga 1. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 17 3 1 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 16 3 2 51
3 Leevon / PPK 21 15 4 2 49
4 Riga Mariners 21 14 5 2 47
5 JDFS Alberts 21 11 4 6 37
6 Mārupe 21 9 2 10 29
7 Skanste 21 8 2 11 26
8 Riga FC II 21 7 5 9 26
9 Super Nova 2 21 6 7 8 25
10 Tukums II 21 5 3 13 18
11 Smiltene 21 4 4 13 16
12 JFK Ventspils 21 3 6 12 15
13 Rīgas FS II 21 4 3 14 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 89 17 +72 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 60 23 +37 51
3 Riga Mariners 21 50 23 +27 47
4 Leevon / PPK 21 43 25 +18 49
5 Skanste 21 43 42 +1 26
6 JDFS Alberts 21 42 31 +11 37
7 Mārupe 21 34 32 +2 29
8 Rīgas FS II 21 34 62 -28 15
9 Riga FC II 21 29 37 -8 26
10 Smiltene 21 29 57 -28 16
11 Super Nova 2 21 28 32 -4 25
12 Tukums II 21 27 60 -33 18
13 JFK Ventspils 21 21 41 -20 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 17 64 -47 6