The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Riga FC II at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Riga FC II Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga FC II | 36.6% | 7.3% | +29.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 11.5% | +18.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Metta / LU | 33.8% | 81.2% | -47.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Metta / LU's win probability at 81.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 47.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Riga FC II; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Riga FC II by 47.4 percentage points (84.0% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Riga FC II 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Metta / LU 33.8%
- xG · Riga FC II 1.33 — Metta / LU 1.27
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Riga FC II 12.19 · Draw 7.75 · Metta / LU 1.10
- Implied 1X2 · Riga FC II 7.3% · Draw 11.5% · Metta / LU 81.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Riga FC II 12.19 · Draw 7.75 · Metta / LU 1.10
- Implied 1X2 · Riga FC II 7.3% · Draw 11.5% · Metta / LU 81.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (47 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 51 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 49 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Skanste | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 8 | Riga FC II | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 25 |
| 10 | Tukums II | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 18 |
| 11 | Smiltene | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 15 |
| 13 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 21 | 89 | 17 | +72 | 54 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 21 | 60 | 23 | +37 | 51 |
| 3 | Riga Mariners | 21 | 50 | 23 | +27 | 47 |
| 4 | Leevon / PPK | 21 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 49 |
| 5 | Skanste | 21 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 26 |
| 6 | JDFS Alberts | 21 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 37 |
| 7 | Mārupe | 21 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 29 |
| 8 | Rīgas FS II | 21 | 34 | 62 | -28 | 15 |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 21 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 21 | 29 | 57 | -28 | 16 |
| 11 | Super Nova 2 | 21 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 25 |
| 12 | Tukums II | 21 | 27 | 60 | -33 | 18 |
| 13 | JFK Ventspils | 21 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 21 | 17 | 64 | -47 | 6 |
