Predictions / Football / Latvia. 1. Liga / Leevon / PPK vs Skanste

Prediction Audit: Leevon / PPK vs Skanste Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK
Jul 25, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
Skanste Skanste

AI correctly predicted the Leevon / PPK win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Leevon / PPK Leevon / PPK ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Leevon / PPK higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Leevon / PPK -29.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Leevon / PPK 35.2% 64.5% -29.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.4% +10.2 pp Model Edge
Skanste 35.2% 16.0% +19.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Leevon / PPK's win probability at 64.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 29.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Leevon / PPK win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Leevon / PPK higher (64.5% vs model 35.2%, 29.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Leevon / PPK win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:13 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Leevon / PPK 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Skanste 35.2%
    • xG · Leevon / PPK 1.30 — Skanste 1.30
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Leevon / PPK 1.39 · Draw 4.61 · Skanste 5.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Leevon / PPK 64.5% · Draw 19.4% · Skanste 16.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Leevon / PPK 1.39 · Draw 4.61 · Skanste 5.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Leevon / PPK 64.5% · Draw 19.4% · Skanste 16.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Leevon / PPK win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456362

Closing Odds 1.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Leevon / PPK win · Leevon / PPK 2–1 Skanste
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Latvian First League
  • Fixture: Leevon / PPK vs Skanste
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Leevon / PPK 1.3 — Skanste 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming 1. Liga Matches Track Leevon / PPK Next Match Prediction Track Skanste Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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1. Liga 1. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 17 3 1 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 16 3 2 51
3 Leevon / PPK 21 15 4 2 49
4 Riga Mariners 21 14 5 2 47
5 JDFS Alberts 21 11 4 6 37
6 Mārupe 21 9 2 10 29
7 Skanste 21 8 2 11 26
8 Riga FC II 21 7 5 9 26
9 Super Nova 2 21 6 7 8 25
10 Tukums II 21 5 3 13 18
11 Smiltene 21 4 4 13 16
12 JFK Ventspils 21 3 6 12 15
13 Rīgas FS II 21 4 3 14 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 89 17 +72 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 60 23 +37 51
3 Riga Mariners 21 50 23 +27 47
4 Leevon / PPK 21 43 25 +18 49
5 Skanste 21 43 42 +1 26
6 JDFS Alberts 21 42 31 +11 37
7 Mārupe 21 34 32 +2 29
8 Rīgas FS II 21 34 62 -28 15
9 Riga FC II 21 29 37 -8 26
10 Smiltene 21 29 57 -28 16
11 Super Nova 2 21 28 32 -4 25
12 Tukums II 21 27 60 -33 18
13 JFK Ventspils 21 21 41 -20 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 17 64 -47 6