Predictions / Football / Latvia. 1. Liga / Mārupe vs Metta / LU

Prediction Audit: Mārupe vs Metta / LU Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mārupe Mārupe
Jul 18, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.27
4 1.33
xG Accuracy: 34%
Metta / LU Metta / LU

AI correctly predicted the Metta / LU win.

The match finished 0–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Metta / LU Metta / LU ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Metta / LU higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Metta / LU -37.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mārupe 33.8% 10.7% +23.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 15.4% +14.2 pp Model Edge
Metta / LU 36.6% 73.9% -37.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Metta / LU's win probability at 73.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 37.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Metta / LU win 0–4).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Metta / LU higher (73.9% vs model 36.6%, 37.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Metta / LU win 0–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 19:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mārupe 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Metta / LU 36.6%
    • xG · Mārupe 1.27 — Metta / LU 1.33
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mārupe 8.30 · Draw 5.75 · Metta / LU 1.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Mārupe 10.7% · Draw 15.4% · Metta / LU 73.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mārupe 8.30 · Draw 5.75 · Metta / LU 1.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Mārupe 10.7% · Draw 15.4% · Metta / LU 73.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Metta / LU win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 30/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (37 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 8/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1658747

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Metta / LU win · Mārupe 0–4 Metta / LU
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Metta / LU; market prices Metta / LU instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Mārupe 1.27 xG vs Metta / LU 1.33 → Metta / LU 36.6%
  • Market: Metta / LU ~73.9% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Liga 1. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 17 3 1 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 16 3 2 51
3 Leevon / PPK 21 15 4 2 49
4 Riga Mariners 21 14 5 2 47
5 JDFS Alberts 21 11 4 6 37
6 Mārupe 21 9 2 10 29
7 Skanste 21 8 2 11 26
8 Riga FC II 21 7 5 9 26
9 Super Nova 2 21 6 7 8 25
10 Tukums II 21 5 3 13 18
11 Smiltene 21 4 4 13 16
12 JFK Ventspils 21 3 6 12 15
13 Rīgas FS II 21 4 3 14 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metta / LU 21 89 17 +72 54
2 Valmiera / BSS 21 60 23 +37 51
3 Riga Mariners 21 50 23 +27 47
4 Leevon / PPK 21 43 25 +18 49
5 Skanste 21 43 42 +1 26
6 JDFS Alberts 21 42 31 +11 37
7 Mārupe 21 34 32 +2 29
8 Rīgas FS II 21 34 62 -28 15
9 Riga FC II 21 29 37 -8 26
10 Smiltene 21 29 57 -28 16
11 Super Nova 2 21 28 32 -4 25
12 Tukums II 21 27 60 -33 18
13 JFK Ventspils 21 21 41 -20 15
14 Rēzekne FA 21 17 64 -47 6