AI correctly predicted the Colchagua win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Colchagua Colchagua ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Rengo | 29.2% | 19.1% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 22.5% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Colchagua | 41.4% | 58.4% | -17.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Colchagua's win probability at 58.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Colchagua win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Colchagua than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Colchagua higher (58.4% vs model 41.4%, 17.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Colchagua win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 27, 2026 · 21:27 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportes Rengo 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Colchagua 41.4%
- xG · Deportes Rengo 1.17 — Colchagua 1.43
-
Jun 27, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportes Rengo 4.74 · Draw 4.02 · Colchagua 1.55
- Implied 1X2 · Deportes Rengo 19.1% · Draw 22.5% · Colchagua 58.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 27, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportes Rengo 4.74 · Draw 4.02 · Colchagua 1.55
- Implied 1X2 · Deportes Rengo 19.1% · Draw 22.5% · Colchagua 58.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 27, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Colchagua win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 3 | Colchagua | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | Concón National | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 | Santiago City | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Linares Unido | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Trasandino | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | General Velásquez | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Colina | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 12 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 13 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trasandino | 12 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 18 |
| 2 | Santiago City | 12 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 20 |
| 3 | Concón National | 12 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 | Linares Unido | 12 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 | Colchagua | 12 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 | Colina | 12 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | General Velásquez | 12 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
