AI correctly predicted the Spain win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Spain Spain ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 3-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 69.9% | 90.0% | -20.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 16.5% | 6.9% | +9.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Czech Republic | 13.6% | 3.2% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Spain's win probability at 90.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 69.9%, a difference of 20.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Spain win 3–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.79) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 3–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Spain higher (89.9% vs model 69.9%, 20.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Spain win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 19:39 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Spain 69.9% · Draw 16.5% · Czech Republic 13.6%
- xG · Spain 1.97 — Czech Republic 1.82
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Spain 1.07 · Draw 13.97 · Czech Republic 30.49
- Implied 1X2 · Spain 90.0% · Draw 6.9% · Czech Republic 3.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Spain 1.07 · Draw 13.97 · Czech Republic 30.49
- Implied 1X2 · Spain 90.0% · Draw 6.9% · Czech Republic 3.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Spain win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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UEFA Nations League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Belgium | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Italy | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Italy | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | France | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 2 | Belgium | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 3 | Italy | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 3 | — | — | — | 0 |
