AI correctly predicted the France win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 France France ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 0-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 21.2% | 11.6% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 20.9% | 17.2% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| France | 57.9% | 71.3% | -13.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates France's win probability at 71.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 57.9%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (France win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about France than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced France higher (71.3% vs model 57.9%, 13.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (France win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 19:16 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Türkiye 21.3% · Draw 20.9% · France 57.9%
- xG · Türkiye 1.76 — France 2.03
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Türkiye 8.33 · Draw 5.60 · France 1.35
- Implied 1X2 · Türkiye 11.6% · Draw 17.2% · France 71.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Türkiye 8.33 · Draw 5.60 · France 1.35
- Implied 1X2 · Türkiye 11.6% · Draw 17.2% · France 71.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result France win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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