Predictions / Football / China. League One / Ningbo Professional vs Yanbian Longding

Prediction Audit: Ningbo Professional vs Yanbian Longding Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

⚽
Ningbo Professional
Aug 22, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.20
3 1.40
xG Accuracy: 52%
Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding

AI correctly predicted the Yanbian Longding win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Yanbian Longding considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Yanbian Longding +11.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ningbo Professional 30.6% 39.8% -9.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 31.6% -2.1 pp Aligned
Yanbian Longding 39.9% 28.6% +11.3 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Yanbian Longding's win probability at 39.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.6%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Yanbian Longding win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Yanbian Longding.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yanbian Longding more conservatively (28.6% vs model 39.9%, 11.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yanbian Longding win 2–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ningbo Professional 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Yanbian Longding 40.0%
    • xG · Ningbo Professional 1.20 — Yanbian Longding 1.40
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ningbo Professional 2.33 · Draw 2.94 · Yanbian Longding 3.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Ningbo Professional 39.8% · Draw 31.6% · Yanbian Longding 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ningbo Professional 2.33 · Draw 2.94 · Yanbian Longding 3.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Ningbo Professional 39.8% · Draw 31.6% · Yanbian Longding 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Yanbian Longding win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4214858

Closing Odds 3.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yanbian Longding win · Ningbo Professional 2–3 Yanbian Longding
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: League One
  • Fixture: Ningbo Professional vs Yanbian Longding
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Ningbo Professional 1.2 — Yanbian Longding 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 16 6 2 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 13 6 5 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 12 8 4 44
4 Nantong Zhiyun 23 10 9 4 39
5 Yanbian Longding 24 9 8 7 35
6 Shaanxi Union 23 9 6 8 33
7 Hebei Kungfu 24 8 7 9 31
8 Wuxi Wugou 23 8 5 10 29
9 Changchun Yatai 23 10 3 10 29
10 Ningbo Professional 23 9 5 9 29
11 Dalian Huayi 23 7 8 8 29
12 Suzhou Dongwu 24 7 8 9 26
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 4 11 9 23
14 Nanjing City 24 5 6 13 21
15 Meizhou Kejia 24 7 3 14 15
16 Dongguan United 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 48 20 +28 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 40 26 +14 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 39 25 +14 44
4 Changchun Yatai 23 37 38 -1 29
5 Shaanxi Union 23 35 26 +9 33
6 Wuxi Wugou 23 35 29 +6 29
7 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 35 46 -11 23
8 Yanbian Longding 24 33 27 +6 35
9 Nantong Zhiyun 23 31 20 +11 39
10 Dalian Huayi 23 30 33 -3 29
11 Suzhou Dongwu 24 28 33 -5 26
12 Ningbo Professional 23 27 29 -2 29
13 Meizhou Kejia 24 25 50 -25 15
14 Dongguan United 24 24 49 -25 13
15 Hebei Kungfu 24 22 25 -3 31
16 Nanjing City 24 20 33 -13 21
League One China. League One Predictions