Prediction Audit: Shenzhen Juniors vs Ningbo Professional Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shenzhen Juniors

Aug 16, 2026 - 11:00

0 1.23

0 1.37

xG Accuracy: 49%

⚽

Ningbo Professional

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Ningbo Professional at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ningbo Professional Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Shenzhen Juniors	31.9%	48.3%	-16.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	27.4%	+2.2 pp	Aligned
Ningbo Professional	38.5%	24.3%	+14.2 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Shenzhen Juniors's win probability at 48.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Shenzhen Juniors than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Ningbo Professional; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ningbo Professional by 16.4 percentage points (54.9% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 16, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Shenzhen Juniors 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Ningbo Professional 38.5%
- xG · Shenzhen Juniors 1.23 — Ningbo Professional 1.37
Aug 16, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Shenzhen Juniors 1.92 · Draw 3.39 · Ningbo Professional 3.81
- Implied 1X2 · Shenzhen Juniors 48.3% · Draw 27.4% · Ningbo Professional 24.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Shenzhen Juniors 1.92 · Draw 3.39 · Ningbo Professional 3.81
- Implied 1X2 · Shenzhen Juniors 48.3% · Draw 27.4% · Ningbo Professional 24.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3601467

Closing Odds 1.92

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Shenzhen Juniors 0–0 Ningbo Professional

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: League One
Fixture: Shenzhen Juniors vs Ningbo Professional
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
xG (showing): Shenzhen Juniors 1.23 — Ningbo Professional 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Ningbo Professional
Model: 38.5% · Implied: 24.3% · Probability edge: +14.1 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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League One — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	24	16	6	2	54
2	Guangxi Hengchen	24	13	6	5	45
3	Shenzhen Juniors	24	12	8	4	44
4	Nantong Zhiyun	23	10	9	4	39
5	Yanbian Longding	24	9	8	7	35
6	Shaanxi Union	23	9	6	8	33
7	Hebei Kungfu	24	8	7	9	31
8	Wuxi Wugou	23	8	5	10	29
9	Changchun Yatai	23	10	3	10	29
10	Ningbo Professional	23	9	5	9	29
11	Dalian Huayi	23	7	8	8	29
12	Suzhou Dongwu	24	7	8	9	26
13	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	24	4	11	9	23
14	Nanjing City	24	5	6	13	21
15	Meizhou Kejia	24	7	3	14	15
16	Dongguan United	24	2	7	15	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Guangzhou E-Power	24	48	20	+28	54
2	Guangxi Hengchen	24	40	26	+14	45
3	Shenzhen Juniors	24	39	25	+14	44
4	Changchun Yatai	23	37	38	-1	29
5	Shaanxi Union	23	35	26	+9	33
6	Wuxi Wugou	23	35	29	+6	29
7	Heilongjiang Lava Spring	24	35	46	-11	23
8	Yanbian Longding	24	33	27	+6	35
9	Nantong Zhiyun	23	31	20	+11	39
10	Dalian Huayi	23	30	33	-3	29
11	Suzhou Dongwu	24	28	33	-5	26
12	Ningbo Professional	23	27	29	-2	29
13	Meizhou Kejia	24	25	50	-25	15
14	Dongguan United	24	24	49	-25	13
15	Hebei Kungfu	24	22	25	-3	31
16	Nanjing City	24	20	33	-13	21