Predictions / Football / China. League One / Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen Juniors

Prediction Audit: Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen Juniors Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding
Aug 09, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.53
1 1.07
xG Accuracy: 64%
Shenzhen Juniors Shenzhen Juniors

The model missed the final outcome (Shenzhen Juniors win 0–1).

The model had projected Yanbian Longding at 46.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Yanbian Longding Shenzhen Juniors ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Yanbian Longding considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Yanbian Longding +14.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Yanbian Longding 46.3% 31.4% +14.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 28.7% 31.7% -3.0 pp Aligned
Shenzhen Juniors 25.0% 36.8% -11.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Yanbian Longding's win probability at 46.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.4%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Shenzhen Juniors win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Yanbian Longding.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Yanbian Longding; match finished Shenzhen Juniors

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Yanbian Longding by 14.9 percentage points (31.4% vs model 46.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Yanbian Longding 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · Shenzhen Juniors 24.9%
    • xG · Yanbian Longding 1.53 — Shenzhen Juniors 1.07
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Yanbian Longding 2.93 · Draw 2.90 · Shenzhen Juniors 2.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Yanbian Longding 31.5% · Draw 31.8% · Shenzhen Juniors 36.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Yanbian Longding 2.99 · Draw 2.96 · Shenzhen Juniors 2.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Yanbian Longding 31.4% · Draw 31.7% · Shenzhen Juniors 36.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Shenzhen Juniors win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2960476

Closing Odds 2.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Shenzhen Juniors win · Yanbian Longding 0–1 Shenzhen Juniors
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: League One
  • Fixture: Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen Juniors
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.9%
  • xG (showing): Yanbian Longding 1.53 — Shenzhen Juniors 1.07 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Yanbian Longding
  • Model: 46.3% · Implied: 31.4% · Probability edge: +14.9 pts · Est. EV: +9.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 16 6 2 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 13 6 5 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 12 8 4 44
4 Nantong Zhiyun 23 10 9 4 39
5 Yanbian Longding 24 9 8 7 35
6 Shaanxi Union 23 9 6 8 33
7 Hebei Kungfu 24 8 7 9 31
8 Wuxi Wugou 23 8 5 10 29
9 Changchun Yatai 23 10 3 10 29
10 Ningbo Professional 23 9 5 9 29
11 Dalian Huayi 23 7 8 8 29
12 Suzhou Dongwu 24 7 8 9 26
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 4 11 9 23
14 Nanjing City 24 5 6 13 21
15 Meizhou Kejia 24 7 3 14 15
16 Dongguan United 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 48 20 +28 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 40 26 +14 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 39 25 +14 44
4 Changchun Yatai 23 37 38 -1 29
5 Shaanxi Union 23 35 26 +9 33
6 Wuxi Wugou 23 35 29 +6 29
7 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 35 46 -11 23
8 Yanbian Longding 24 33 27 +6 35
9 Nantong Zhiyun 23 31 20 +11 39
10 Dalian Huayi 23 30 33 -3 29
11 Suzhou Dongwu 24 28 33 -5 26
12 Ningbo Professional 23 27 29 -2 29
13 Meizhou Kejia 24 25 50 -25 15
14 Dongguan United 24 24 49 -25 13
15 Hebei Kungfu 24 22 25 -3 31
16 Nanjing City 24 20 33 -13 21