Predictions / Football / China. League One / Dalian Huayi vs Suzhou Dongwu

Prediction Audit: Dalian Huayi vs Suzhou Dongwu Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dalian Huayi Dalian Huayi
Jul 26, 2026 - 11:00
0 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 49%
Suzhou Dongwu Suzhou Dongwu

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Dalian Huayi at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dalian Huayi Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dalian Huayi higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dalian Huayi -10.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dalian Huayi 41.4% 51.7% -10.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 27.4% +1.9 pp Aligned
Suzhou Dongwu 29.4% 20.9% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Dalian Huayi's win probability at 51.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dalian Huayi than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Dalian Huayi; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dalian Huayi by 10.3 percentage points (51.7% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dalian Huayi 41.4% · Draw 29.3% · Suzhou Dongwu 29.4%
    • xG · Dalian Huayi 1.34 — Suzhou Dongwu 1.26
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dalian Huayi 1.79 · Draw 3.38 · Suzhou Dongwu 4.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalian Huayi 51.7% · Draw 27.4% · Suzhou Dongwu 20.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dalian Huayi 1.79 · Draw 3.38 · Suzhou Dongwu 4.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Dalian Huayi 51.7% · Draw 27.4% · Suzhou Dongwu 20.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 48/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454151

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Dalian Huayi 0–0 Suzhou Dongwu
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: China League One
  • Fixture: Dalian Huayi vs Suzhou Dongwu
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Dalian Huayi 1.34 — Suzhou Dongwu 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 16 6 2 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 13 6 5 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 12 8 4 44
4 Nantong Zhiyun 23 10 9 4 39
5 Yanbian Longding 24 9 8 7 35
6 Shaanxi Union 23 9 6 8 33
7 Hebei Kungfu 24 8 7 9 31
8 Wuxi Wugou 23 8 5 10 29
9 Changchun Yatai 23 10 3 10 29
10 Ningbo Professional 23 9 5 9 29
11 Dalian Huayi 23 7 8 8 29
12 Suzhou Dongwu 24 7 8 9 26
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 4 11 9 23
14 Nanjing City 24 5 6 13 21
15 Meizhou Kejia 24 7 3 14 15
16 Dongguan United 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 48 20 +28 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 40 26 +14 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 39 25 +14 44
4 Changchun Yatai 23 37 38 -1 29
5 Shaanxi Union 23 35 26 +9 33
6 Wuxi Wugou 23 35 29 +6 29
7 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 35 46 -11 23
8 Yanbian Longding 24 33 27 +6 35
9 Nantong Zhiyun 23 31 20 +11 39
10 Dalian Huayi 23 30 33 -3 29
11 Suzhou Dongwu 24 28 33 -5 26
12 Ningbo Professional 23 27 29 -2 29
13 Meizhou Kejia 24 25 50 -25 15
14 Dongguan United 24 24 49 -25 13
15 Hebei Kungfu 24 22 25 -3 31
16 Nanjing City 24 20 33 -13 21
League One China. League One Predictions