Predictions / Football / China. League One / Changchun Yatai vs Nanjing City

Prediction Audit: Changchun Yatai vs Nanjing City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Changchun Yatai Changchun Yatai
Jul 25, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 79%
Nanjing City Nanjing City

AI correctly predicted the Changchun Yatai win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Changchun Yatai Changchun Yatai ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Changchun Yatai higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Changchun Yatai -9.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Changchun Yatai 42.2% 51.2% -9.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.1% 26.7% +2.4 pp Aligned
Nanjing City 28.8% 22.1% +6.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Changchun Yatai's win probability at 51.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.2%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Changchun Yatai win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Changchun Yatai. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Changchun Yatai higher (51.2% vs model 42.2%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Changchun Yatai win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 20:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Changchun Yatai 42.2% · Draw 29.1% · Nanjing City 28.7%
    • xG · Changchun Yatai 1.37 — Nanjing City 1.23
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 10:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Changchun Yatai 1.81 · Draw 3.47 · Nanjing City 4.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Changchun Yatai 51.2% · Draw 26.7% · Nanjing City 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Changchun Yatai 1.81 · Draw 3.47 · Nanjing City 4.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Changchun Yatai 51.2% · Draw 26.7% · Nanjing City 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Changchun Yatai win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 55/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449770

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Changchun Yatai win · Changchun Yatai 2–1 Nanjing City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: China League One
  • Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Nanjing City
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Changchun Yatai 1.37 — Nanjing City 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 16 6 2 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 13 6 5 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 12 8 4 44
4 Nantong Zhiyun 23 10 9 4 39
5 Yanbian Longding 24 9 8 7 35
6 Shaanxi Union 23 9 6 8 33
7 Hebei Kungfu 24 8 7 9 31
8 Wuxi Wugou 23 8 5 10 29
9 Changchun Yatai 23 10 3 10 29
10 Ningbo Professional 23 9 5 9 29
11 Dalian Huayi 23 7 8 8 29
12 Suzhou Dongwu 24 7 8 9 26
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 4 11 9 23
14 Nanjing City 24 5 6 13 21
15 Meizhou Kejia 24 7 3 14 15
16 Dongguan United 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 48 20 +28 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 40 26 +14 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 39 25 +14 44
4 Changchun Yatai 23 37 38 -1 29
5 Shaanxi Union 23 35 26 +9 33
6 Wuxi Wugou 23 35 29 +6 29
7 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 35 46 -11 23
8 Yanbian Longding 24 33 27 +6 35
9 Nantong Zhiyun 23 31 20 +11 39
10 Dalian Huayi 23 30 33 -3 29
11 Suzhou Dongwu 24 28 33 -5 26
12 Ningbo Professional 23 27 29 -2 29
13 Meizhou Kejia 24 25 50 -25 15
14 Dongguan United 24 24 49 -25 13
15 Hebei Kungfu 24 22 25 -3 31
16 Nanjing City 24 20 33 -13 21
League One China. League One Predictions