Predictions / Football / China. League One / Nanjing City vs Guangzhou E-Power

Prediction Audit: Nanjing City vs Guangzhou E-Power Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nanjing City Nanjing City
Jul 18, 2026 - 11:30
0 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 64%
Guangzhou E-Power Guangzhou E-Power

AI correctly predicted the Guangzhou E-Power win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Guangzhou E-Power Guangzhou E-Power ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Guangzhou E-Power higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Guangzhou E-Power -7.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nanjing City 31.0% 24.8% +6.3 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.5% 28.0% +1.5 pp Aligned
Guangzhou E-Power 39.5% 47.2% -7.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Guangzhou E-Power's win probability at 47.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Guangzhou E-Power win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Guangzhou E-Power. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Guangzhou E-Power higher (47.3% vs model 39.5%, 7.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Guangzhou E-Power win 0–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 19:54 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nanjing City 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Guangzhou E-Power 39.5%
    • xG · Nanjing City 1.21 — Guangzhou E-Power 1.39
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nanjing City 3.74 · Draw 3.31 · Guangzhou E-Power 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Nanjing City 24.8% · Draw 28.0% · Guangzhou E-Power 47.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nanjing City 3.74 · Draw 3.31 · Guangzhou E-Power 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Nanjing City 24.8% · Draw 28.0% · Guangzhou E-Power 47.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Guangzhou E-Power win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 61/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1614494

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Guangzhou E-Power win · Nanjing City 0–1 Guangzhou E-Power
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: China League One
  • Fixture: Nanjing City vs Guangzhou E-Power
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Nanjing City 1.21 — Guangzhou E-Power 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 16 6 2 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 13 6 5 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 12 8 4 44
4 Nantong Zhiyun 23 10 9 4 39
5 Yanbian Longding 24 9 8 7 35
6 Shaanxi Union 23 9 6 8 33
7 Hebei Kungfu 24 8 7 9 31
8 Wuxi Wugou 23 8 5 10 29
9 Changchun Yatai 23 10 3 10 29
10 Ningbo Professional 23 9 5 9 29
11 Dalian Huayi 23 7 8 8 29
12 Suzhou Dongwu 24 7 8 9 26
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 4 11 9 23
14 Nanjing City 24 5 6 13 21
15 Meizhou Kejia 24 7 3 14 15
16 Dongguan United 24 2 7 15 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 24 48 20 +28 54
2 Guangxi Hengchen 24 40 26 +14 45
3 Shenzhen Juniors 24 39 25 +14 44
4 Changchun Yatai 23 37 38 -1 29
5 Shaanxi Union 23 35 26 +9 33
6 Wuxi Wugou 23 35 29 +6 29
7 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 24 35 46 -11 23
8 Yanbian Longding 24 33 27 +6 35
9 Nantong Zhiyun 23 31 20 +11 39
10 Dalian Huayi 23 30 33 -3 29
11 Suzhou Dongwu 24 28 33 -5 26
12 Ningbo Professional 23 27 29 -2 29
13 Meizhou Kejia 24 25 50 -25 15
14 Dongguan United 24 24 49 -25 13
15 Hebei Kungfu 24 22 25 -3 31
16 Nanjing City 24 20 33 -13 21
League One China. League One Predictions