Predictions / Football / China. League One / Yanbian Longding vs Suzhou Dongwu

Prediction Audit: Yanbian Longding vs Suzhou Dongwu Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding
Jul 11, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.46
1 1.14
xG Accuracy: 63%
Suzhou Dongwu Suzhou Dongwu

AI correctly predicted the Yanbian Longding win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Yanbian Longding win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 11, 2026 · 20:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Yanbian Longding 1.46 — Suzhou Dongwu 1.14
  2. Jul 11, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Yanbian Longding win · 3–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 20:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1498331

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yanbian Longding win · Yanbian Longding 3–1 Suzhou Dongwu
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: League One
  • Fixture: Yanbian Longding vs Suzhou Dongwu
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-11 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Yanbian Longding 1.46 — Suzhou Dongwu 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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League One League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 26 18 6 2 60
2 Nantong Zhiyun 26 13 9 4 48
3 Guangxi Hengchen 26 13 7 6 46
4 Shenzhen Juniors 26 12 9 5 45
5 Shaanxi Union 26 12 6 8 42
6 Wuxi Wugou 26 10 6 10 36
7 Yanbian Longding 26 9 9 8 36
8 Hebei Kungfu 26 9 8 9 35
9 Changchun Yatai 26 10 5 11 31
10 Ningbo Professional 26 9 6 11 30
11 Dalian Huayi 26 7 9 10 30
12 Suzhou Dongwu 26 7 10 9 28
13 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 26 4 12 10 24
14 Nanjing City 26 5 7 14 22
15 Meizhou Kejia 26 7 4 15 16
16 Dongguan United 26 3 7 16 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guangzhou E-Power 26 55 22 +33 60
2 Shaanxi Union 26 47 28 +19 42
3 Guangxi Hengchen 26 41 28 +13 46
4 Shenzhen Juniors 26 41 30 +11 45
5 Wuxi Wugou 26 41 31 +10 36
6 Changchun Yatai 26 39 42 -3 31
7 Heilongjiang Lava Spring 26 36 49 -13 24
8 Nantong Zhiyun 26 35 20 +15 48
9 Yanbian Longding 26 34 29 +5 36
10 Dalian Huayi 26 31 38 -7 30
11 Suzhou Dongwu 26 30 35 -5 28
12 Ningbo Professional 26 27 31 -4 30
13 Dongguan United 26 26 54 -28 16
14 Meizhou Kejia 26 25 53 -28 16
15 Hebei Kungfu 26 23 25 -2 35
16 Nanjing City 26 21 37 -16 22
League One China. League One Predictions