AI correctly predicted the Volgar Astrakhan win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Volgar Astrakhan Volgar Astrakhan ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volgar Astrakhan | 41.8% | 49.6% | -7.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.1% | -1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Rodina Moskva II | 32.6% | 23.3% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Rodina Moskva II's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.3%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Volgar Astrakhan win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Rodina Moskva II.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Volgar Astrakhan more conservatively (32.6% vs model 41.8%, 9.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Volgar Astrakhan win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 31, 2026 · 18:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Volgar Astrakhan 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Rodina Moskva II 32.6%
- xG · Volgar Astrakhan 1.45 — Rodina Moskva II 1.25
-
May 31, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Volgar Astrakhan 1.81 · Draw 3.32 · Rodina Moskva II 3.85
- Implied 1X2 · Volgar Astrakhan 49.6% · Draw 27.1% · Rodina Moskva II 23.3%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 31, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Volgar Astrakhan 1.81 · Draw 3.32 · Rodina Moskva II 3.85
- Implied 1X2 · Volgar Astrakhan 49.6% · Draw 27.1% · Rodina Moskva II 23.3%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 31, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Volgar Astrakhan win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League A - Division A Gold — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veles | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 33 |
| 2 | Volgar Astrakhan | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 3 | Tekstilshchik | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Mashuk-KMV | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Novosibirsk | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Leningradets | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 7 | Tyumen | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Dinamo Kirov | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Dinamo Moskva II | 18 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyumen | 18 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 23 |
| 2 | Veles | 18 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 33 |
| 3 | Novosibirsk | 18 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 24 |
| 4 | Tekstilshchik | 18 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 30 |
| 5 | Leningradets | 18 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 18 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 30 |
| 7 | Dinamo Kirov | 18 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
| 8 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 18 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 17 |
| 9 | Volgar Astrakhan | 18 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 32 |
| 10 | Dinamo Moskva II | 18 | 9 | 36 | -27 | 12 |
