AI correctly predicted the Mashuk-KMV win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Mashuk-KMV Mashuk-KMV ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mashuk-KMV | 41.8% | 36.1% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 27.1% | -1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Novosibirsk | 32.6% | 36.8% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Mashuk-KMV's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 36.1%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Mashuk-KMV win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mashuk-KMV.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mashuk-KMV more conservatively (36.1% vs model 41.8%, 5.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mashuk-KMV win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 31, 2026 · 18:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mashuk-KMV 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Novosibirsk 32.6%
- xG · Mashuk-KMV 1.45 — Novosibirsk 1.25
-
May 31, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Mashuk-KMV 2.49 · Draw 3.32 · Novosibirsk 2.44
- Implied 1X2 · Mashuk-KMV 36.1% · Draw 27.1% · Novosibirsk 36.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 31, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Mashuk-KMV 2.49 · Draw 3.32 · Novosibirsk 2.44
- Implied 1X2 · Mashuk-KMV 36.1% · Draw 27.1% · Novosibirsk 36.8%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 31, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mashuk-KMV win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League A - Division A Gold — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veles | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 33 |
| 2 | Volgar Astrakhan | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 3 | Tekstilshchik | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Mashuk-KMV | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Novosibirsk | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Leningradets | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 7 | Tyumen | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Dinamo Kirov | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Dinamo Moskva II | 18 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyumen | 18 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 23 |
| 2 | Veles | 18 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 33 |
| 3 | Novosibirsk | 18 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 24 |
| 4 | Tekstilshchik | 18 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 30 |
| 5 | Leningradets | 18 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 18 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 30 |
| 7 | Dinamo Kirov | 18 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
| 8 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 18 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 17 |
| 9 | Volgar Astrakhan | 18 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 32 |
| 10 | Dinamo Moskva II | 18 | 9 | 36 | -27 | 12 |
