Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Gold / Irtysh Omsk vs Mashuk-KMV

Prediction Audit: Irtysh Omsk vs Mashuk-KMV Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Irtysh Omsk Irtysh Omsk
May 27, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Mashuk-KMV Mashuk-KMV

The model missed the final outcome (Mashuk-KMV win 0–2).

The model had projected Irtysh Omsk at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Irtysh Omsk Mashuk-KMV ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, 1-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Irtysh Omsk considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Irtysh Omsk +18.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Irtysh Omsk 41.8% 23.6% +18.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 31.6% -6.0 pp Market Higher
Mashuk-KMV 32.6% 44.7% -12.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Irtysh Omsk's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.6%, a difference of 18.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mashuk-KMV win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Irtysh Omsk.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Irtysh Omsk; match finished Mashuk-KMV

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Irtysh Omsk by 18.1 percentage points (23.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 27, 2026 · 18:13 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Mashuk-KMV 32.6%
    • xG · Irtysh Omsk 1.45 — Mashuk-KMV 1.25
  2. May 27, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Irtysh Omsk 3.80 · Draw 2.84 · Mashuk-KMV 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 23.6% · Draw 31.6% · Mashuk-KMV 44.7%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. May 27, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Irtysh Omsk 3.80 · Draw 2.84 · Mashuk-KMV 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 23.6% · Draw 31.6% · Mashuk-KMV 44.7%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. May 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mashuk-KMV win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1665591

Closing Odds 3.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mashuk-KMV win · Irtysh Omsk 0–2 Mashuk-KMV
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League A - Division A Gold
  • Fixture: Irtysh Omsk vs Mashuk-KMV
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-27 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Irtysh Omsk 1.45 — Mashuk-KMV 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 64.3% · Implied: 48.4% · Probability edge: +15.9 pts · Est. EV: +22.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 35.7% · No 64.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (16.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Second League A - Division A Gold Matches Track Irtysh Omsk Next Match Prediction Track Mashuk-KMV Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Irtysh Omsk & Mashuk-KMV!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Second League A - Division A Gold Second League A - Division A Gold — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Veles 18 9 6 3 33
2 Volgar Astrakhan 18 9 5 4 32
3 Tekstilshchik 18 8 6 4 30
4 Mashuk-KMV 18 8 6 4 30
5 Novosibirsk 18 7 3 8 24
6 Leningradets 18 7 3 8 24
7 Tyumen 18 6 5 7 23
8 Dinamo Kirov 18 5 5 8 20
9 Alaniya Vladikavkaz 18 5 2 11 17
10 Dinamo Moskva II 18 1 9 8 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tyumen 18 31 26 +5 23
2 Veles 18 26 12 +14 33
3 Novosibirsk 18 26 18 +8 24
4 Tekstilshchik 18 24 16 +8 30
5 Leningradets 18 22 25 -3 24
6 Mashuk-KMV 18 20 17 +3 30
7 Dinamo Kirov 18 20 24 -4 20
8 Alaniya Vladikavkaz 18 19 30 -11 17
9 Volgar Astrakhan 18 18 11 +7 32
10 Dinamo Moskva II 18 9 36 -27 12
Second League A - Division A Gold Russia. Second League A - Division A Gold Predictions