The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Irtysh Omsk at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Irtysh Omsk Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2 0-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irtysh Omsk | 41.8% | 15.2% | +26.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.4% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Veles | 32.6% | 58.3% | -25.8 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Irtysh Omsk's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 15.2%, a difference of 26.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Irtysh Omsk; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Irtysh Omsk by 26.5 percentage points (15.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 17, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Veles 32.6%
- xG · Irtysh Omsk 1.45 — Veles 1.25
-
May 17, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Irtysh Omsk 5.90 · Draw 3.40 · Veles 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 15.2% · Draw 26.4% · Veles 58.3%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 17, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Irtysh Omsk 5.90 · Draw 3.40 · Veles 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 15.2% · Draw 26.4% · Veles 58.3%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 17, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 41.8%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Irtysh Omsk & Veles!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Second League A - Division A Gold — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veles | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 33 |
| 2 | Volgar Astrakhan | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 3 | Tekstilshchik | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Mashuk-KMV | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Novosibirsk | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Leningradets | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 7 | Tyumen | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Dinamo Kirov | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Dinamo Moskva II | 18 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyumen | 18 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 23 |
| 2 | Veles | 18 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 33 |
| 3 | Novosibirsk | 18 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 24 |
| 4 | Tekstilshchik | 18 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 30 |
| 5 | Leningradets | 18 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 18 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 30 |
| 7 | Dinamo Kirov | 18 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
| 8 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 18 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 17 |
| 9 | Volgar Astrakhan | 18 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 32 |
| 10 | Dinamo Moskva II | 18 | 9 | 36 | -27 | 12 |
