The model missed the final outcome (Mashuk-KMV win 0–5).
The model had projected Leningradets at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Leningradets Mashuk-KMV ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leningradets | 41.8% | 43.0% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 25.7% | 32.4% | -6.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Mashuk-KMV | 32.6% | 24.6% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Mashuk-KMV's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.6%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Mashuk-KMV win 0–5.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mashuk-KMV.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Leningradets; match finished Mashuk-KMV
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Leningradets by 8.0 percentage points (33.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 17, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leningradets 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Mashuk-KMV 32.6%
- xG · Leningradets 1.45 — Mashuk-KMV 1.25
-
May 17, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leningradets 2.09 · Draw 2.77 · Mashuk-KMV 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · Leningradets 43.0% · Draw 32.4% · Mashuk-KMV 24.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 17, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Leningradets 2.09 · Draw 2.77 · Mashuk-KMV 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · Leningradets 43.0% · Draw 32.4% · Mashuk-KMV 24.6%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 17, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mashuk-KMV win · 0–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League A - Division A Gold — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veles | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 33 |
| 2 | Volgar Astrakhan | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 32 |
| 3 | Tekstilshchik | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Mashuk-KMV | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Novosibirsk | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 6 | Leningradets | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 24 |
| 7 | Tyumen | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Dinamo Kirov | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Dinamo Moskva II | 18 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyumen | 18 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 23 |
| 2 | Veles | 18 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 33 |
| 3 | Novosibirsk | 18 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 24 |
| 4 | Tekstilshchik | 18 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 30 |
| 5 | Leningradets | 18 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 18 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 30 |
| 7 | Dinamo Kirov | 18 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
| 8 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 18 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 17 |
| 9 | Volgar Astrakhan | 18 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 32 |
| 10 | Dinamo Moskva II | 18 | 9 | 36 | -27 | 12 |
