Predictions / Football / Russia. Second League A - Division A Gold / Irtysh Omsk vs Rodina Moskva II

Prediction Audit: Irtysh Omsk vs Rodina Moskva II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Irtysh Omsk Irtysh Omsk
May 10, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 70%
Rodina Moskva II Rodina Moskva II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Irtysh Omsk at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Irtysh Omsk Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Irtysh Omsk considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Irtysh Omsk +9.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Irtysh Omsk 41.8% 32.8% +9.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.6% -0.9 pp Aligned
Rodina Moskva II 32.6% 40.6% -8.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Irtysh Omsk's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.8%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Irtysh Omsk.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Irtysh Omsk by 9.0 percentage points (32.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Rodina Moskva II 32.6%
    • xG · Irtysh Omsk 1.45 — Rodina Moskva II 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Irtysh Omsk 2.74 · Draw 3.38 · Rodina Moskva II 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 32.8% · Draw 26.6% · Rodina Moskva II 40.6%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. May 10, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Irtysh Omsk 2.74 · Draw 3.38 · Rodina Moskva II 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Irtysh Omsk 32.8% · Draw 26.6% · Rodina Moskva II 40.6%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. May 10, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 07:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2587369

Closing Odds 2.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Irtysh Omsk 2–2 Rodina Moskva II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League A - Division A Gold
  • Fixture: Irtysh Omsk vs Rodina Moskva II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Irtysh Omsk 1.45 — Rodina Moskva II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 59.5% · Implied: 46.3% · Probability edge: +13.2 pts · Est. EV: +18.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.5% · No 59.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League A - Division A Gold Second League A - Division A Gold — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Veles 18 9 6 3 33
2 Volgar Astrakhan 18 9 5 4 32
3 Tekstilshchik 18 8 6 4 30
4 Mashuk-KMV 18 8 6 4 30
5 Novosibirsk 18 7 3 8 24
6 Leningradets 18 7 3 8 24
7 Tyumen 18 6 5 7 23
8 Dinamo Kirov 18 5 5 8 20
9 Alaniya Vladikavkaz 18 5 2 11 17
10 Dinamo Moskva II 18 1 9 8 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tyumen 18 31 26 +5 23
2 Veles 18 26 12 +14 33
3 Novosibirsk 18 26 18 +8 24
4 Tekstilshchik 18 24 16 +8 30
5 Leningradets 18 22 25 -3 24
6 Mashuk-KMV 18 20 17 +3 30
7 Dinamo Kirov 18 20 24 -4 20
8 Alaniya Vladikavkaz 18 19 30 -11 17
9 Volgar Astrakhan 18 18 11 +7 32
10 Dinamo Moskva II 18 9 36 -27 12
Second League A - Division A Gold Russia. Second League A - Division A Gold Predictions