The model missed the final outcome (Eastern United win 1–2).
The model had projected Fulham United at 48.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fulham United Eastern United ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham United | 48.8% | 64.9% | -16.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 26.1% | 18.3% | +7.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Eastern United | 25.1% | 16.7% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Fulham United's win probability at 64.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.8%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Eastern United win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Fulham United than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Fulham United; match finished Eastern United
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fulham United by 16.1 percentage points (64.9% vs model 48.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 00:10 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fulham United 48.8% · Draw 26.2% · Eastern United 25.1%
- xG · Fulham United 1.43 — Eastern United 1.17
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 05:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fulham United 1.38 · Draw 5.16 · Eastern United 5.33
- Implied 1X2 · Fulham United 65.5% · Draw 17.5% · Eastern United 17.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 05:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fulham United 1.41 · Draw 4.99 · Eastern United 5.47
- Implied 1X2 · Fulham United 64.9% · Draw 18.3% · Eastern United 16.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 05:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Eastern United win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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South Australia State League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Raiders | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 47 |
| 2 | Modbury Jets | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide Olympic | 22 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 43 |
| 4 | Fulham United | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 6 | Adelaide Victory | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Cumberland United | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 34 |
| 8 | The Cove | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 9 | Eastern United | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 10 | Adelaide Cobras | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 11 | Salisbury United | 22 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 17 |
| 12 | South Adelaide Panthers | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Raiders | 22 | 56 | 26 | +30 | 47 |
| 2 | Modbury Jets | 22 | 46 | 20 | +26 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide Olympic | 22 | 42 | 25 | +17 | 43 |
| 4 | Fulham United | 22 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 37 |
| 5 | Adelaide Victory | 22 | 40 | 34 | +6 | 36 |
| 6 | Cumberland United | 22 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 34 |
| 7 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 22 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 36 |
| 8 | The Cove | 22 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 26 |
| 9 | Salisbury United | 22 | 28 | 48 | -20 | 17 |
| 10 | South Adelaide Panthers | 22 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 15 |
| 11 | Eastern United | 22 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 22 |
| 12 | Adelaide Cobras | 22 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 20 |
