The model missed the final outcome (Cumberland United win 1–3).
The model had projected Fulham United at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fulham United Cumberland United ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham United | 43.2% | 44.7% | -1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 28.1% | 25.1% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Cumberland United | 28.7% | 30.2% | -1.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Cumberland United win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Fulham United; match finished Cumberland United
Market lesson
The full-time result was Cumberland United win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 16, 2026 · 19:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fulham United 43.3% · Draw 28.0% · Cumberland United 28.7%
- xG · Fulham United 1.45 — Cumberland United 1.15
-
Jul 16, 2026 · 09:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fulham United 1.93 · Draw 3.44 · Cumberland United 2.86
- Implied 1X2 · Fulham United 44.7% · Draw 25.1% · Cumberland United 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 16, 2026 · 09:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fulham United 1.93 · Draw 3.44 · Cumberland United 2.86
- Implied 1X2 · Fulham United 44.7% · Draw 25.1% · Cumberland United 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 16, 2026 · 09:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cumberland United win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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South Australia State League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Raiders | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 47 |
| 2 | Modbury Jets | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide Olympic | 22 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 43 |
| 4 | Fulham United | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 6 | Adelaide Victory | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Cumberland United | 22 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 34 |
| 8 | The Cove | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 |
| 9 | Eastern United | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 10 | Adelaide Cobras | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 11 | Salisbury United | 22 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 17 |
| 12 | South Adelaide Panthers | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Raiders | 22 | 56 | 26 | +30 | 47 |
| 2 | Modbury Jets | 22 | 46 | 20 | +26 | 44 |
| 3 | Adelaide Olympic | 22 | 42 | 25 | +17 | 43 |
| 4 | Fulham United | 22 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 37 |
| 5 | Adelaide Victory | 22 | 40 | 34 | +6 | 36 |
| 6 | Cumberland United | 22 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 34 |
| 7 | Adelaide Blue Eagles | 22 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 36 |
| 8 | The Cove | 22 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 26 |
| 9 | Salisbury United | 22 | 28 | 48 | -20 | 17 |
| 10 | South Adelaide Panthers | 22 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 15 |
| 11 | Eastern United | 22 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 22 |
| 12 | Adelaide Cobras | 22 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 20 |
