AI correctly predicted the Bayswater City win.
The match finished 6–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Bayswater City Bayswater City ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayswater City | 39.0% | 56.8% | -17.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 21.6% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Stirling Lions | 31.5% | 21.6% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Bayswater City's win probability at 56.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bayswater City win 6–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Bayswater City than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bayswater City higher (56.9% vs model 39.0%, 17.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bayswater City win 6–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bayswater City 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Stirling Lions 31.5%
- xG · Bayswater City 1.38 — Stirling Lions 1.22
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bayswater City 1.61 · Draw 4.24 · Stirling Lions 4.24
- Implied 1X2 · Bayswater City 56.8% · Draw 21.6% · Stirling Lions 21.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bayswater City 1.61 · Draw 4.24 · Stirling Lions 4.24
- Implied 1X2 · Bayswater City 56.8% · Draw 21.6% · Stirling Lions 21.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bayswater City win · 6–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Western Australia NPL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 60 | 27 | +33 | 47 |
| 2 | Perth | 22 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 38 |
| 3 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 44 | 29 | +15 | 41 |
| 4 | Fremantle City | 22 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 35 |
| 5 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 21 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 30 |
| 7 | Armadale | 22 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Knights | 22 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 25 |
| 9 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 41 |
| 10 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 23 |
| 11 | Balcatta | 22 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 17 |
| 12 | Sorrento | 22 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 24 |
