The model missed the final outcome (Campbelltown City win 1–3).
The model had projected Sturt Lions at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Sturt Lions Campbelltown City ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturt Lions | 36.6% | 45.7% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.3% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Campbelltown City | 33.8% | 31.0% | +2.8 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Sturt Lions's win probability at 45.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Campbelltown City win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Sturt Lions. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Sturt Lions; match finished Campbelltown City
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Sturt Lions by 9.1 percentage points (45.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sturt Lions 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Campbelltown City 33.8%
- xG · Sturt Lions 1.33 — Campbelltown City 1.27
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 09:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sturt Lions 2.09 · Draw 3.93 · Campbelltown City 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Sturt Lions 43.8% · Draw 23.3% · Campbelltown City 32.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sturt Lions 2.03 · Draw 3.98 · Campbelltown City 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Sturt Lions 45.7% · Draw 23.3% · Campbelltown City 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Campbelltown City win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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South Australia NPL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 5 | White City Woodville | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 54 | 29 | +25 | 45 |
| 2 | MetroStars | 22 | 53 | 23 | +30 | 44 |
| 3 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 46 | 41 | +5 | 30 |
| 4 | Adelaide City | 22 | 44 | 16 | +28 | 48 |
| 5 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 35 |
| 6 | West Adelaide | 22 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | White City Woodville | 22 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 33 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 29 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 16 | 102 | -86 | 2 |
