The model missed the final outcome (West Adelaide win 1–3).
The model had projected MetroStars at 53.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 MetroStars West Adelaide ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MetroStars | 53.1% | 75.7% | -22.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.5% | 14.4% | +11.1 pp | Model Edge |
| West Adelaide | 21.5% | 9.9% | +11.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates MetroStars's win probability at 75.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 53.1%, a difference of 22.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was West Adelaide win 1–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned MetroStars; match finished West Adelaide
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on MetroStars by 22.6 percentage points (75.7% vs model 53.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 20:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · MetroStars 53.1% · Draw 25.4% · West Adelaide 21.5%
- xG · MetroStars 1.45 — West Adelaide 1.15
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 09:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · MetroStars 1.21 · Draw 6.36 · West Adelaide 9.24
- Implied 1X2 · MetroStars 75.7% · Draw 14.4% · West Adelaide 9.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 09:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · MetroStars 1.21 · Draw 6.36 · West Adelaide 9.24
- Implied 1X2 · MetroStars 75.7% · Draw 14.4% · West Adelaide 9.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 09:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result West Adelaide win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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South Australia NPL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 5 | White City Woodville | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 54 | 29 | +25 | 45 |
| 2 | MetroStars | 22 | 53 | 23 | +30 | 44 |
| 3 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 46 | 41 | +5 | 30 |
| 4 | Adelaide City | 22 | 44 | 16 | +28 | 48 |
| 5 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 35 |
| 6 | West Adelaide | 22 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 25 |
| 7 | White City Woodville | 22 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 33 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 29 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 16 | 102 | -86 | 2 |
