Prediction Audit: Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ypiranga-RS

Aug 23, 2026 - 21:30

1 1.24

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 64%

Ferroviária

The model missed the final outcome (Ypiranga-RS win 1–0).

The model had projected Ferroviária at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ferroviária Ypiranga-RS ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Ypiranga-RS	32.4%	39.7%	-7.3 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	31.3%	-1.7 pp	Aligned
Ferroviária	38.0%	29.0%	+9.0 pp	Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Ferroviária's win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.0%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ypiranga-RS win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ferroviária.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Ferroviária; match finished Ypiranga-RS

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ferroviária by 9.0 percentage points (29.0% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ypiranga-RS 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Ferroviária 38.0%
- xG · Ypiranga-RS 1.24 — Ferroviária 1.36
Aug 23, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ypiranga-RS 2.31 · Draw 2.93 · Ferroviária 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · Ypiranga-RS 39.7% · Draw 31.3% · Ferroviária 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ypiranga-RS 2.31 · Draw 2.93 · Ferroviária 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · Ypiranga-RS 39.7% · Draw 31.3% · Ferroviária 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Ypiranga-RS win · 1–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4372750

Closing Odds 3.16

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ypiranga-RS win · Ypiranga-RS 1–0 Ferroviária

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie C
Fixture: Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 21:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Ypiranga-RS 1.24 — Ferroviária 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Botafogo PB	19	10	3	6	33
2	Brusque	19	9	5	5	32
3	Ferroviária	19	8	6	5	30
4	Maringá	19	8	6	5	30
5	Floresta	19	8	6	5	30
6	Inter De Limeira	19	8	6	5	30
7	Paysandu	19	9	2	8	29
8	Santa Cruz	19	8	5	6	29
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	8	5	6	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	7	7	5	28
11	Figueirense	19	7	7	5	28
12	Maranhão	19	7	6	6	27
13	Amazonas	19	7	5	7	26
14	Caxias	19	6	7	6	25
15	Ituano	19	6	4	9	22
16	Volta Redonda	19	6	3	10	21
17	Barra	19	5	6	8	21
18	Anápolis	19	5	4	10	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	4	5	10	17
20	Confiança	19	3	4	12	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Guarani Campinas	19	34	24	+10	28
2	Maringá	19	32	30	+2	30
3	Botafogo PB	19	28	19	+9	33
4	Brusque	19	28	22	+6	32
5	Ypiranga-RS	19	27	24	+3	29
6	Paysandu	19	26	27	-1	29
7	Ferroviária	19	22	15	+7	30
8	Floresta	19	22	20	+2	30
9	Inter De Limeira	19	22	20	+2	30
10	Barra	19	21	21	0	21
11	Amazonas	19	21	23	-2	26
12	Santa Cruz	19	20	15	+5	29
13	Maranhão	19	19	18	+1	27
14	Figueirense	19	19	22	-3	28
15	Ituano	19	18	21	-3	22
16	Caxias	19	17	16	+1	25
17	Anápolis	19	17	22	-5	19
18	AO Itabaiana	19	14	27	-13	17
19	Volta Redonda	19	13	25	-12	21
20	Confiança	19	11	20	-9	13