Prediction Audit: Inter De Limeira vs Figueirense Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Inter De Limeira

Aug 23, 2026 - 19:00

0 1.26

0 1.34

xG Accuracy: 49%

Figueirense

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Figueirense at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Figueirense Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Inter De Limeira	33.3%	46.6%	-13.3 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	31.1%	-1.4 pp	Aligned
Figueirense	37.1%	22.3%	+14.8 pp	Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Figueirense's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.3%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Figueirense.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Figueirense; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Figueirense by 14.8 percentage points (22.3% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Inter De Limeira 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Figueirense 37.0%
- xG · Inter De Limeira 1.26 — Figueirense 1.34
Aug 23, 2026 · 18:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Inter De Limeira 1.96 · Draw 2.94 · Figueirense 4.10
- Implied 1X2 · Inter De Limeira 46.6% · Draw 31.1% · Figueirense 22.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Inter De Limeira 1.96 · Draw 2.94 · Figueirense 4.10
- Implied 1X2 · Inter De Limeira 46.6% · Draw 31.1% · Figueirense 22.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (15 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4371175

Closing Odds 4.1

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Inter De Limeira 0–0 Figueirense

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Serie C
Fixture: Inter De Limeira vs Figueirense
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Inter De Limeira 1.26 — Figueirense 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.8%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Serie C Matches Track Inter De Limeira Next Match Prediction Track Figueirense Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Inter De Limeira & Figueirense!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Serie C — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Botafogo PB	19	10	3	6	33
2	Brusque	19	9	5	5	32
3	Ferroviária	19	8	6	5	30
4	Maringá	19	8	6	5	30
5	Floresta	19	8	6	5	30
6	Inter De Limeira	19	8	6	5	30
7	Paysandu	19	9	2	8	29
8	Santa Cruz	19	8	5	6	29
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	8	5	6	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	7	7	5	28
11	Figueirense	19	7	7	5	28
12	Maranhão	19	7	6	6	27
13	Amazonas	19	7	5	7	26
14	Caxias	19	6	7	6	25
15	Ituano	19	6	4	9	22
16	Volta Redonda	19	6	3	10	21
17	Barra	19	5	6	8	21
18	Anápolis	19	5	4	10	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	4	5	10	17
20	Confiança	19	3	4	12	13

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Guarani Campinas	19	34	24	+10	28
2	Maringá	19	32	30	+2	30
3	Botafogo PB	19	28	19	+9	33
4	Brusque	19	28	22	+6	32
5	Ypiranga-RS	19	27	24	+3	29
6	Paysandu	19	26	27	-1	29
7	Ferroviária	19	22	15	+7	30
8	Floresta	19	22	20	+2	30
9	Inter De Limeira	19	22	20	+2	30
10	Barra	19	21	21	0	21
11	Amazonas	19	21	23	-2	26
12	Santa Cruz	19	20	15	+5	29
13	Maranhão	19	19	18	+1	27
14	Figueirense	19	19	22	-3	28
15	Ituano	19	18	21	-3	22
16	Caxias	19	17	16	+1	25
17	Anápolis	19	17	22	-5	19
18	AO Itabaiana	19	14	27	-13	17
19	Volta Redonda	19	13	25	-12	21
20	Confiança	19	11	20	-9	13